![Careful what you wish for [Video]](https://editorial.fxstreet.com/images/Macroeconomics/CentralBanks/FED/new-us-2013-100-bill-federal-reserve-seal-extreme-macro-28149984_XtraLarge.jpg)
We come into Friday with investors getting everything they could have wanted with respect to what they’d like to see to force the Fed into taking a friendlier policy track. This week’s inflation data out of the US came in soft and this latest US initial jobless claims ran up to the highest level in two years.
Author
Joel Kruger
MarketPunks
Joel is a global macro trader and chief market punk at MarketPunks.
Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.
EUR/USD has recovered its recent losses registered in the previous session, trading around 1.1760 during the Asian hours on Friday. Traders will likely observe Germany’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index data later in the day.
The GBP/USD pair gathers strength to around 1.3480 during the early Asian session on Friday. Expectations of the US Federal Reserve rate cuts this year weigh on the US Dollar against the Pound Sterling. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson is set to speak later on the weekend.
Gold price rises to near $4,345 during the early Asian session on Friday. Gold finished 2025 with a significant rally, achieving an annual gain of around 65%, its biggest annual gain since 1979. The rally of the precious metal is bolstered by the prospect of further US interest rate cuts in 2026 and safe-haven flows.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple entered the new year trading at key technical levels on Friday, as traders seek fresh directional cues in January. With BTC locked in a tight range, ETH is approaching its 50-day Exponential Moving Average, while XRP is nearing resistance. A clear breakout across these top three cryptocurrencies could help define market momentum in the opening weeks of the year.
After a year marked by global economic resilience and ending on a note of optimism, 2026 looks promising and could be a year of solid economic performance. In our baseline scenario, we expect most of the supportive factors at work in 2025 to continue to play a role in 2026.
Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is. Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).
