Car registrations increase in CEE but decline in the EU

Erste Bank Research Team Erste Bank

On the radar

Hungarian central bank kept policy rate unchanged at 6.50%.
Production prices in industry were published at 1.3% y/y in Slovakia for April.
AT 10.30 AM CET Slovenia will release retail sales growth in April.
At 11 AM CET Croatia will publish 1Q25 GDP data including the structure of the growth.

Economic developments

Car registrations between January and April increased by an average of 2.1% in the CEE7 region (excluding Serbia). However, developments varied across CEE countries. Romania and Slovakia experienced declines in car registrations during this period, with year-on-year drops of 6.1% and 7.7%, respectively. In contrast, other CEE countries saw growth in car registrations. In Czechia, registrations rose by 4.9% year-on-year. However, Czech car production slowed by 7.6% year-on-year in the first four months of the year, as demand declined in Europe—impacting the country’s key export industry. Across the entire EU, car registrations fell by 1.2% year-on-year. Looking at car registrations by power source up to April 2025, hybrid electric vehicles accounted for 41% of registrations in the region, followed by petrol-powered cars at 35.9%. Battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles had a relatively low share, making up only around 5% of registrations. In contrast, battery-electric vehicles represented 15.3% of the total market share in the EU.

Market developments

The Hungarian central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 6.50% today, and its communication did not introduce any new developments. The key terms “cautiousness” and “patience” remained central to the bank’s messaging, reflecting ongoing risks to the inflation outlook. No changes to the policy rate are expected in the near term. However, we maintain our view that anticipated monetary easing by major and regional central banks could allow for one or two cautious rate cuts in Hungary toward the end of the year. The EUR/HUF exchange rate has remained stable this week, and FX market volatility has been limited in other countries as well. Long-term yields have declined. In Poland, the latest polls slightly favor Trzaskowski (the candidate of the current government) over Nawrocki, suggesting a tight outcome in this Sunday’s presidential election.

Download The Full CEE Macro Daily

Author

Erste Bank Research Team

Erste Bank

At Erste Group we greatly value transparency. Our Investor Relations team strives to provide comprehensive information with frequent updates to ensure that the details on these pages are always current.

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1900 as USD recovers

EUR/USD trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day, below 1.1900 in the European session on Thursday. A modest rebound in the US Dollar is weighing on the pair, despite an upbeat market mood. Traders keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for further trading impetus.

GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 after UK data dump

\GBP/USD moves little while holding above 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday, following the release of the UK Q4 preliminary GDP, which showed a 0.1% growth against a 0.2% increase expected. The UK industrial sector activity deteriorated in Decembert, keeping the downward pressure intact on the Pound Sterling.

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses as reduced March Fed rate cut bets underpin USD

Gold languishes near the lower end of its daily range heading into the European session on Thursday. The precious metal, however, lacks follow-through selling amid mixed cues and currently trades above the $5,050 level, well within striking distance of a nearly two-week low touched the previous day.

Cardano eyes short-term rebound as derivatives sentiment improves

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.257 at the time of writing on Thursday, after slipping more than 4% so far this week. Derivatives sentiment improves as ADA’s funding rates turn positive alongside rising long bets among traders.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

Sonic Labs’ vertical integration fuels recovery in S token

Sonic, previously Fantom (FTM), is extending its recovery trade at $0.048 at the time of writing, after rebounding by over 12% the previous day. The recovery thesis’ strengths lie in the optimism surrounding Sonic Labs’ Wednesday announcement to shift to a vertically integrated model, aimed at boosting S token utility.