Confidence will be key The RBNZ have recently stated that they are unlikely to use 'unconventional' policy measures and that low rates are sufficient for the time being. The CPI data out on Tuesday this week saw a beat with the q/q/ reading printing at 0.7% vs 0.6% expected and the y/y reading at 1.5% vs 1.4% expected (1.7% prior).

The RBNZ is still waiting to see the impact of their surprise 50bps rate cut and the market is now watching the data for indications as to whether the policies are having an impact or not. The CPI data was stronger than expected bit the NZD sold off as RBNZ deputy Governor Bascand said after the data release that the economy remains vulnerable to external shocks and lower rates may still be needed to achieve targets and it is a reasonable prospect for rates to go lower. The last business confidence reading out of New Zealand on September 30th showed the lowest print since April 2008. The next data print for business confidence comes in on October 31 and data is pretty quiet aside from that, so confidence will be key. Until then, and in the absence of any RBNZ comments, I am expecting NZD to remain pressured and moved around by global trade fears or optimism depending on how US/China phase 1 negotiations go.


 

Learn more about HYCM

 

High Risk Investment Warning: Contracts for Difference (‘CFDs’) are complex financial products that are traded on margin. Trading CFDs carries a high degree of risk. It is possible to lose all your capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone and you should ensure that you understand the risks involved. Seek independent expert advice if necessary and speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Please think carefully whether such trading suits you, taking into consideration all the relevant circumstances as well as your personal resources. We do not recommend clients posting their entire account balance to meet margin requirements. Clients can minimise their level of exposure by requesting a change in leverage limit. For more information please refer to HYCM’s Risk Disclosure.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD pressured around 1.13 after jump in US jobs

EUR/USD is trading around 1.13, down after US Non-Farm Payrolls shocked with a leap of 2.5 million jobs in May, contrary to all projections. The greenback is gaining while stocks are falling, a correlation breakdown. ECB stimulus previously supported the euro.

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD retreats from highs

GBP/USD is trading below 1.27, off the highs. The pound is struggling after Chief EU Negotiator Barnier reported little progress in Brexit talks. Robust US jobs support the dollar.

GBP/USD News

Gold sees weekly closing below $1700 - a caution for bulls

The steady decline in Gold prices (futures on Comex) accelerated on Friday, as the rates closed the week below the 1700 mark for the first time in three weeks at 1688.35. A weekly closing below the key 1700 level is unlikely to bode well for the bulls.

Gold News

Institutional demand exceeds Bitcoins supply

Greyscale floods the market with fresh money to satisfy the demand of its clients. Investors, willing to pay a 29% surcharge for exposure to Bitcoin without suffering the legal and operational inconveniences. Market remains at risk on the verge of new bullish territory.

Read more

WTI rallies above $39 as focus shifts to OPEC+ meeting

Crude oil prices built on Thursday's modest gains and rose sharply on Friday boosted by the upbeat market mood optimism surrounding Saturday's OPEC+ meeting. 

Oil News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures