Bulls eye fresh highs for Euro as Dollar slips further
- EUR/USD remains bullish on daily and 4H structure, backed by continued dollar softness
- Price is now correcting into a key FVG zone between 1.13821 - 1.14094, where bullish continuation setups may form
- A strong bullish reaction here would open up a run toward 1.1500, while a break below 1.1380 flips the intraday tone neutral
The euro continues to gain ground against the dollar as broader USD weakness persists ahead of Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) event. Following yesterday’s weaker-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI, EUR/USD has managed to push to fresh local highs before pausing for breath near the 1.1450 handle.
Bullish scenario materializing
Previously, I mentioned in EUR/USD extends recovery, but faces ECB risk and resistance at 1.14 that A break and close above 1.1375 could target the 1.1400 psychological level and reopen room toward 1.1500.
Four-hour: Watching for FVG rebalance at 1.13821 - 1.14094
On the 4-hour timeframe, EUR/USD has left behind a Fair Value Gap between 1.13821 and 1.14094. Price is currently pulling back toward this level, and a rejection or bullish confirmation inside this area could open the door for a continuation toward the next high at 1.1500.
This FVG aligns with a key structure level from prior consolidation at 1.131 - 1.139 and may act as a launchpad if dollar sentiment stays weak throughout the session.
One-hour: Short-term correction in progress
The 1-hour chart shows price pulling back from a short-term range high, with bearish pressure inside the red zone as the market takes profits from recent upside.
If price dips below 1.140 area and prints a bullish engulfing or strong wick rejection, it would likely signal trend continuation. However, a clean breakdown and hold below 1.1380 could shift the short-term bias back to neutral.
This is also an area for manipulation and take out of sell-side liquidity before Euro launches for renewed strength. As long as Dollar weakens, Euro will continue to hold its ground.
What to expect
- During the European and NY sessions, watch how price reacts inside the FVG zone between 1.13821 - 1.14094.
- If the FVG holds, Euro may resume its uptrend and target 1.1500, possibly extending further this week with NFP as the catalyst.
- However, if we break and close below 1.1380, short-term downside toward 1.1320 could unfold before new long entries emerge.
Author
Jasper Osita
ACY Securities
Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis, trading Smart Money Concepts (SMC) with fundamentals in mind.
