Bullish tones with relatively muted news flow ahead of JOLTS

EU mid-market update: Bullish tones with relatively muted news flow ahead of JOLTS; China mulls bigger stimulus if Trump wins; Key events later in week, including Alphabet and AMD reporting after the close.

Notes/Observations

- Risk is on as European equities notch modest gains and US dollar pulls back marginally. Bitcoin surpasses $70K. Again, a lot of focus on catalysts down the road, with UK budget, BOJ decision and US jobs report and US election all within next 7 days. For macro earnings, Alphabet and AMD to report after the close.

- UK BRC Shop Price index fell at fastest pace for >3 years while German GFK confidence better than expected; UK mortgage approvals hit approx 2-year high.

- Press reports circulating that China may announce bigger fiscal stimulus package if Trump wins US election.

- Notable EU earnings from Lufthansa, Adidas, BP and Novartis; Adidas downplayed China market weakness, highlighted by most of its competitors in the country.

- Upcoming US Premarket Earnings: PYPL, SOFI, DHI, XRX, PFE, PAG, THC, MAS, RCL, MCD, JBLU, GLW, PSX, ECL, ABG, ATI, SYY, CROX.

- Asia closed mixed with Shanghai underperforming -1.1%. EU indices are -0.4% to +0.7%. US futures are +0.1%. Gold +0.4%, DXY -0.1%; Commodity: Brent +0.6%, WTI +0.6%; Crypto: BTC +4.3%, ETH +4.5%.

Asia

- China top legislative body next week to approve issuance over CNY10T in extra debt during next few years and considering stronger fiscal package if Trump wins - press.

- China reportedly to keep tariffs on Ethanolamines products from US and others; To be effective for five years from Oct 30th - press.

- Japan Cabinet Office (Govt) Oct Monthly Report: Maintains overall economic assessment; Downgrades view on production.

- Japan Sept Jobless Rate: 2.4% v 2.5%e.

- Japan PM Ishiba said to seek partial coalition with the DPP (Democratic Party for the People).

- Japan Democratic Party for the People Head Tamaki stated that his party would not join LDP, Komeito ruling coalition; did not understand what a partial coalition meant.

- Japan govt and ruling bloc said to be arranging to convene special Diet Session to vote on PM Ishiba on Nov 11th would mean.

- Japan Fin Min Kato reiterated to watch FX moves with 'higher' sense of urgency.

- BOK Gov Rhee stated that would 'very likely' cut 2024 GDP growth forecast to 2.2-2.3%.

Europe

- UK Oct BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: -0.8% v -0.5%e.

- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) Quarterley Business Survey: Hard to see any improvement in the near term.

- German Association of Chambers of Trade and Industry (DIHK): Cuts 2024 GDP growth from 0.0% to -0.2%.

Americas

- White House announced final version of China Investment curbs.

Conflicts/tensions

- Hezbollah reportedly appoints Naim Qassem as Chief - press.

- Saudi Arabia said to be ready to act as mediator between Russia/Ukraine talks - press.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum/ERRATUM

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.28% at 522.40, FTSE +0.33% at 8,313.14, DAX +0.39% at 19,606.65, CAC-40 +0.56% at 7,599.09, IBEX-35 -0.04% at 11,898.65, FTSE MIB +0.43% at 35,167.00, SMI -0.49% at 12,185.80, S&P 500 Futures -0.01%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices open higher across the board and remained upbeat through the early part of the session; Turkey closed for holiday; improved risk appetite attributed to general economic outlook; among sectors leading to the upside are consumer discretionary and financials; lagging sectors include real estate and health care; apparel subsector supported following Adidas earnings; reportedly Nexans rejects offer from CD&R; press reports suggest Spanish regulators might extend review of BBVA’s takeover of Sabadell; earnings expected in the upcoming US session include McDonald’s, Alphabet, Visa and AXA.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: LVMH [MC.FR] +1.5% (China reportedly mulls stronger fiscal support package if Trump wins), Adidas [ADS.DE] +2.0% (final Q3 results, affirms guidance), Lufthansa [LHA.DE] -2.5% (earnings), Hellofresh [HFG.DE] -5.5% (prelim Q3 results), Straumann [STMN.CH] -7.5% (Q3 results).

- Consumer staples: Corbion [CRBN.NL] +5.5% (Q3 results, raises guidance).

- Energy: BP [BP.UK] -1.0% (Q3 results, maintains $1.75B share buyback pace during Q4, guides upstream production lower) - Financials: HSBC Holdings [HSBA.UK] +4.5% (earnings).

- Healthcare: Novartis [NOVN.CH] -3.5% (Q3 results, raises guidance).

- Industrials: Thyssenkrupp [TKA.DE] +0.5% (CEO interview), Wartsila [WRT1V.FI] -10.5% (Q3 results).

- Telecom: Pearson [PSON.UK] +2.5% (trading update).

Speakers

- ECB’s De Guindos (Spain stated that had good news regarding inflation but not so with respect to growth; To keep all options open at upcoming meetings.

- German Association of Chambers of Trade and Industry (DIHK) cut the 2024 GDP growth forecast from 0.0% to -0.2% and saw 2025 GDP stagnating.

Economic data

- (ZA) South Africa Sept M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 7.3% v 6.1% prior; Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 4.6% v 4.0%e.

- (FI) Finland Sept House Price Index M/M: -0.6% v +1.1% prior; Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.5% prior.

- (DE) Germany Nov GfK Consumer Confidence: -18.3 v -20.5e.

- (SE) Sweden Q3 GDP Indicator Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.1% v +0.5% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Sept GDP Indicator M/M: -0.4% v +0.8% prior; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.7% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Sept Retail Sales M/M: -0.1% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.7% v 0.3% prior.

- (FI) Finland Aug Final Trade Balance: -€0.4B v -€0.3B prelim.

- (AT) Austria Oct Manufacturing PMI: 42.0 v 42.8 prior (27th month of contraction).

- (IT) Italy Sept Hourly Wages M/M: 0.2% v 1.2% prior; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.6% prior.

- (UK) Sept Net Consumer Credit: £1.2B v £1.3Be; Net Lending: £2.5B v £2.8Be.

- (UK) Sept Mortgage Approvals: 65.6K v 64.4Ke.

- (UK) Sept M4 Money Supply M/M: +0.6% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 3.5% v 1.7% prior; M4 (ex-IOFCs) 3-month Annualized: 2.9% v 2.1% prior.

Fixed income issuance

- (SK) Slovakia Debt Agency (Ardal) opened its book to sell EUR-denominated 7-year bond via syndicate; guidance seen bps to mid-swaps.

- South Africa sells total ZAR3.75B vs. ZAR3.75B indicated in 2033, 2035 and 2038 bonds.

Looking ahead

- (IL) Israel Oct 12-month CPI Forecast: No est v 3.0% prior.

- 06:00 (BE) Belgium Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.1% prior.

- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing.

- 06:00 (UK) DMO to sell £4.0B in 4.125% July 2029 Gilts.

- 06:00 (AT) Austria Debt Agency (AFFA) to sell combined €2.5B in 3-month and 6-month Bills.

- 06:00 (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) to sell combined €3.25B in 6-month bills (2 tranches).

- 06:15 (CH) Switzerland to sell 3-month Bills.

- 06:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 06:30 (DE) Germany to sell €4.0B in 2.5% Oct 2029 BOBL.

- 06:30 (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) to sell 3-Month Bills.

- 06:30 (PL) Poland to sell Bonds.

- 06:30 (ZA) South Africa to sell combined ZAR3.75B in 2033, 2035 and 2038 bonds.

- 06:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender (MRO) (prior €9.957B with 33 bids recd).

- 06:30 (EU) ECB allotment in 3-month LTRO tender (prior €6.823B with 20 bids recd).

- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No est v -1.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.0% prior.

- 07:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Retail Sales Volume M/M: No est v -1.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -2.5% prior.

- 07:00 (PT) Portugal Sept Retail Sales M/M: No est v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.2% prior.

- 07:30 (BR) Brazil Sept Current Account Balance: -$5.0Be v -$6.6B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $5.6Be v $6.1B prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Sept Unemployment Rate: 9.0%e v 8.9% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept Preliminary Wholesale Inventories M/M: 0.0%e v 0.1% prior; Retail Inventories M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior.

- 08:30 (US) Sept Advance Goods Trade Balance: -$95.9Be v -$94.3B prior.

- 08:55 (US) Weekly Redbook LFL Sales data.

- 09:00 (US) Aug FHFA House Price Index M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior.

- 09:00 (US) Aug S&P CoreLogic House Price City (20-City) M/M: 0.20%e v 0.27% prior; Y/Y: 4.80%e v 5.92% prior; House Price Index (overall) Y/Y: No est v 4.96% prior.

- 09:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:00 (RU) Russia announcement on upcoming OFZ bond issuance (held on Wed).

- 10:00 (US) Sept JOLTS Job Openings: 7.935Me v 8.040M prior.

- 10:00 (US) Oct Consumer Confidence: 99.3e v 98.7 prior.

- 10:30 (US) Oct Dallas Fed Services Activity: No est v -2.6 prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 52-week bills.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 2-year FRN.

- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 7-Year Notes.

- 13:30 (DK) Denmark Central Bank’s Krogstrup.

- 14:00 (CH) SNB’s Schlegel.

- 15:30 (CA) Bank of Canada (BOC) Gov Macklem with member Rogers in Parliament.

- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Sept CPI Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.7% prior; CPI Trimmed Mean Y/Y: No est v 3.4% prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Q3 CPI Q/Q: 0.3%e v 1.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.9%e v 3.8% prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Q3 CPI Trimmed Mean Q/Q: 0.7%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.5%e v 3.9% prior.

- 20:30 (AU) Australia Q3 CPI Weighted Median Q/Q: 0.8%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 4.1% prior.

- 22:00 (SG) Singapore Sept M2 Money Supply Y/Y: No est v 1.2% prior; M1 Y/Y: No est v 3.7% prior.