Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers today
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Today in the US, the Markit PMI manufacturing index for October will be released. We believe the figure will be broadly unchanged, indicating only modest growth.
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A few Fed members are scheduled to speak today. The most important one is James Bullard (voter, dovish), as we have not heard from him in a while.
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In the euro area today, we will get PMI figures for October. The economic survey data has been resilient to the UK's vote to leave the EU and, although it seems more likely that we will end up with a ‘hard' Brexit, we expect a stronger manufacturing PMI. The orderinventory balance, which is usually a good leading indicator for the manufacturing index, was very strong in September, pointing to a large jump in the manufacturing figure. The services PMI on the other hand has trended down in 2016 but a recent stabilisation in the future business expectations index suggests it will remain around the current level.
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There are no major data releases today in Scandinavia. Later this week, focus in Scandinavia will be on central banks with both the Riksbank's and Norges Bank's monetary policy decisions on Thursday. In addition, the SNDO will release its new forecast on Wednesday for the net borrowing requirements for the remainder of 2016 and 2017. We foresee quite a dramatic cut in net issuance, which may eventually also be an issue for the Riksbank as the supply of assets to purchase in its QE programme will probably decrease further.
Selected market news
Last week ended with a fairly quiet day in global financial markets on Friday. It was a day with a thin calendar in terms of global data releases, with the consumer confidence figure for October in the euro area coming out at -8.0% (in line with consensus). Together with other economic survey indicators, consumer confidence has been resilient to the UK's vote to leave the EU. It remains supported by solid employment growth and the still-low oil price but, looking ahead, lower real wage growth is likely to become a headwind.
It has been another calm session in global financial markets this morning. Regarding risk sentiment it has been slightly skewed towards risk-on with Asian stock markets mainly in green. In fixed income markets, changes in the US 10y government benchmark bond yield have been subdued since Friday night (CET) and the 10y Japan government benchmark bond yield has climbed slightly higher (by approximately 1bp) since the end of last week. However, Brent oil has dropped to USD51.55/bbl at the time of writing.
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