BoC holds rates steady, ADP payrolls rise more than expected

It was a busy day for the markets as the economic calendar was packed with key economic releases. Data from ADP showed that private payrolls in the U.S. rose 190k for the month of November. This was higher than the forecasts of 189k. No revisions were made to previous month's print which was at 235k.

The Bank of Canada held the overnight rate steady at 1.0%. However, the BoC's dovish tone dampened expectations of future rate hikes. This sent the Canadian dollar weaker on the day.

Oil prices were also weaker despite the weekly inventory report showing a larger than expected draw in U.S. stockpiles. Crude oil futures fell 2.9% on the day to close at $55.96 a barrel. This came data showed that U.S. crude oil production increased by 25,000 barrels per day to 9.71 million barrels per day.

Looking ahead, the economic calendar is relatively light today. The Eurozone's revised GDP data is due to show an unchanged quarterly growth rate of 0.6% while Canada's Ivey PMI numbers are due to come out later. The ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak later during the day.


EURUSD intra-day analysis


EURUSD (1.1803): The euro currency closed on a bearish note yesterday extending declines for two consecutive days. With the currency closing below the 1.1843 - 1.1822 level of support/resistance, we expect to see further declines. Any gains are likely to be limited to the resistance level mentioned. To the downside, the declines could be seen pushing the euro towards the 1.1710 level of support. In the event that EURUSD manages to close back above the resistance level, we could expect to see the bullish bias taking over. The euro could be seen attempting to post gains towards the 1.1920 level of resistance.


USDJPY intra-day analysis


USDJPY (112.41): The USDJPY closed bearish yesterday with price action on the daily session suggesting a bearish engulfing bar. On the intraday charts the U.S. dollar was seen posting a strong bounce off the support level at 112.04. We expect to see the near term gains limited to the resistance level at 112.65. USDJPY is expected to maintain the sideways range into tomorrow's payrolls report. A breakout from this range will suggest further direction in the currency pair. For the moment, the declines coincide with the retest of the support level and filling last Friday's gap.


XAUUSD intra-day analysis


XAUUSD (1263.08): Gold prices were muted yesterday with price briefly rising on an intraday high before giving up the gains. Price remains steady near the support level of 1262 region. The Stochastics oscillator shows a bullish divergence that is forming. This suggests a near term correction towards the 1274 level of resistance. However, gold prices are expected to remain trading flat in the medium term within the support and resistance levels mentioned.

This market forecast is for general information only. It is not an investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.

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