Berkshire disclosed new position in Alphabet

EU mid-market update: US govt spools back up as data releases this week to fill in some gaps around macro economic picture; Berkshire disclosed new position in Alphabet.

Notes/observations

- Marginal pullback in EU indices as morning progressed with no real catalyst since Friday. Macro sentiment is still muddling through resumption of US govt and waiting on the sporadic release of delayed US economic data.

- Japan Q3 GDP was negative but not as bad as consensus, analysts attribute the decline to worsening trade environment. Swiss Q3 GDP declined 0.5% QoQ. Generally, if AI capex is the last pillar of support covering up true GDP data, focus will be on the next few readings if investors continue to question the spending ROI and AI valuations leading to drop in investment. Reminder that before Scion Asset Management announced its wind-down, M Burry was publicly bringing attention to massive capex by hyperscalers, noting they could be inflating earnings via extended depreciation schedules, estimating the accounting could understate depreciation by $176B from 2026-28. He promised new report on this later in Nov.

- US data slate is back and heavy this week, with the September jobs report on Thursday 11/20 at 8:30am ET and the November flash PMIs on Friday 11/21 at 9:45am ET anchoring a broad run of activity and sentiment releases. Earnings are dominated by major US consumer and tech names, with HD and MDT on Tuesday, TGT, LOW and TJX on Wednesday morning, followed by the key AI read from NVDA and PANW on Wednesday night, and WMT closing out the week. Additionally, there is Microsoft Ignite conf. takes place Nov 18-21st. Markets will also watch for any new AI hyperscaler debt offerings - a theme increasingly tied to capex financing needs and one that could shape rate-sensitive tech sentiment through year-end.

- Trump admin continues to shake off political pressure with resurfaced Epstein story. Trump on Truth said Republicans should vote to release the files. Treas Sec Bessent put a disclaimer that the $2,000 tariff checks would require approval from Congress.

- Tier-1 analysts say Flexport reports stable but sufficient customer inventories, tariff-driven volatility in supply chains. Flexport expects ocean freight rates and forwarder yields to remain under pressure into 2026, with tariffs likely to pass through to consumers and create inflationary drag for price-sensitive demand.

- Asian press reports that the global DRAM shortage has become so acute that distributors are now bundling memory modules with motherboards for the first time.

- TTN Reminder: it is two weeks left until next scheduled Supreme Court hearing in IEEPA’s legality case.

- Asia closed mixed with KOSPI outperforming +1.9%. EU indices -0.1% to -0.4%. US futures +0.1-0.7%. Gold +0.2%, DXY +0.1%; Commodity: Brent -0.1%, WTI -0.1%; Crypto: BTC -0.8%, ETH -1.2%.

Asia

- Japan Q3 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.4% v -0.6%e; GDP annualized Q/Q: -1.8% v -2.4%e.

- Japan govt's FY25 stimulus package said to be ~¥17.0T; Extra budget to fund stimulus package by ~¥14T - Nikkei.

- Indonesia said to impose gold export levy from 2026.

- China MOFCOM: To maintain some anti-dumping tariffs on US Propanol imports, incl N-Propanol.

Europe

- UK Chancellor Reeves to hit savers with £12.0B tax raid; Reeves also 'warned' she has 'squandered' bond market credibility [Autumn Statement is expected on Nov 26th].

- Fitch raised Greece sovereign rating one notch to BBB from BBB-; Outlook Stable.

- S&P raised South Africa from BB- to BB; Outlook positive [**Note: lifted South Africa’s credit rating for the first time in two decades].

- EU "Stablecoin run" may force ECB to rethink rates - FT, citing Dutch Central Bank Chief and ECB's Sleijpen.

- BoE's Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) announces life insurance stress tests results for 2025: Life insurers show resilience under severe stress; £8.6B capital hit but requirements met.

- Reportedly Hungary may explore Citigroup-led loan facility.

- Hungary PM Orban: To postpone excise tax increase on fuels by 6 months.

Americas

- Treasury Sec Bessent reiterated Trump $2,000 checks would require approval from Congress.

- Trump: Nuclear testing will happen pretty soon; Would be best if we denuclearize; Expect the tariff dividend sometime in 2026.

- Trump: House Republicans should vote to release the Epstein files - Truth Social post.

- NY Fed Pres Williams gathered bank execs to discuss key short term lending facility - FT.

- Trump admin officials, including Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., discussed scaling back the role of FDA chief Makary - WSJ.

- Trump: Negotiating with some Democrat lawmakers on Healthcare; Believe any country that does business with Russia to be sanctioned, Iran may be included to that list.

- FAA to terminate Emergency Order due to govt shutdown on Nov 17th, 6am (ET); To return to normal ops.

- Canada PM Carney 'searches' for votes to pass budget and avoid snap election.

Trade

- India Trade Min Agrawal: EU negotiations are in last phase.

- USTR Greer said to 'hit out' at EU delays related to cutting tariffs and rules - FT.

- China's Vice Prem He Lifeng: China and Germany reached important consensus on deepening exchanges.

- Thailand Commerce Min Chotima: Confident US still aiming to finish trade negotiations by end-2025; Thailand ready to continue talks.

Conflict/tensions:

- Germany Chancellor Merz: China is becoming outwardly more aggressive and inwardly more repressive.

- SOUTHCOM notes US military struck a vessel and killed 4 narco-terrorists in the Caribbean.

- China sends coastguard patrol near disputed islands with Japan; Follows dispute over JP PM Takaichi's recent comments over Taiwan.

- South Korea Dep Defense Min Kim: South Korea proposes military talks with North Korea - Yonhap.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.20% at 573.64, FTSE -0.28% at 23,820.69, DAX -0.29% at 23,809.71, CAC-40 -0.21% at 8,153.28, IBEX-35 -0.65% at 16,245.50, FTSE MIB -0.34% at 43,846.00, SMI -0.11% at 12,609.99, S&P 500 Futures +0.47%].

Market focal points/key themes: European indices open modestly higher across the board but quickly reversed to trade generally lower in the early part of the session; among outperforming sectors are communication services and real estate; underperforming sectors include consumer discretionary and materials; Snam desists from acquiring stake in Open Grid; TotalEnergies acquires stake in EPH generation assets; no major earnings expected in the upcoming US session.

Equities

- Energy: TotalEnergies [TTE.FR] +0.5% (acquisition).

- Financials: HICL Infrastructure [HICL.UK] -8.0% (merger).

- Industrials: Saab [SAABB.SE] +6.0% (large contract).

- Technology: SÜSS MicroTec [SMHN.DE] +12.0% (new targets), Saab [SAABB.SE] +6.0% (large contract).

- Materials: Genuit Group [GEN.UK] -13.0% (trading update).

Speakers

- ECB’s De Guindos (Spain): Expect inflation to converge towards 2% target; Risk of abrupt shift in sentiment; Wage dynamics going in right direction.

- ECB Rehn said must account for risk of slowing inflation; This risk should not be underestimated, when asked about any Dec rate cut.

- RBA board member Renee Fry-McKibbin; Backs 'flexible approach' to price and employment goals - Australia press guest opinion.

- Former BOJ board member Kataoka: BOJ should move cautiously in policy normalisation, would be premature to hike interest rates in Dec or Jan.

Economic data

- (UK) Nov Rightmove House Prices M/M: -1.8% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.1% prior.

- (NO) Norway Oct Trade Balance (NOK): 56.5B v 35.0B prior.

- (DK) Denmark Oct PPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 0.1% v 0.9% prior.

- (CH) Swiss Q3 Industrial Output Y/Y: +2.4% v 2.1% prior; Industry & Construction Output Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.3% prior.

- (CH) Swiss Q3 Preliminary GDP (Sport Adjusted) Q/Q: -0.5% v -0.1%e.

- (TR) Turkey Oct Central Gov't Budget Balance (TRY): -223.2B v -309.6B prior.

- (IT) Italy Oct Final CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e; CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -0.2%e v -0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 1.3% v 1.3% prelim; CPI Index (ex-tobacco): 121.4 v 121.7 prior.

- (IS) Iceland Oct International Reserves (ISK): 954B v 922B prior.

- (IN) India Oct Trade Balance: -$41.7B v -$30.0Be; Exports Y/Y: -11.8% v +6.7% prior; Imports Y/Y: +16.6% v 16.7% prior.

- (CA) Canada Oct Existing Home Sales M/M: 0.9% v 0.0%e.

Fixed income issuance

- Philippines sells PHP25.0B v PHP22.0B indicated 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bill auction results.

- Japan sells ¥249.6B vs. ¥250B indicated in 10-Year inflation-linked JGB bonds; Yield at lowest accepted price: 0.113% v 0.078% prior, bid-to-cover x 3.46x v 2.92 prior.

Looking ahead

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €3.0B in 12-month bubills.

- 05:30 (NL) Netherland to sell bills- 06:00 (FI) Finland to sell €1.0-1.5B in 3.00% Sept 2035 and 2.95% Apr 2055 RFGB bonds.

- 06:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON 500M in 7.25% 2040 bonds.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel to sell ISL 2.5B in 2028, 2031, 2033, 2034, 2035 and 2052 bonds and linkers.

- 06:00 (IE) Ireland Sept Trade Balance: No est v €5.2B prior.

- 06:00 (IL) Israel Oct Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.0% prior; Broad Unemployment Rate: No est v 3.9% prior.

- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economist Survey.

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Central Bank Traders Survey.

- 07:00 (IN) India announcement on upcoming bond auction on Fri.

- 07:00 (BR) Brazil Sept Economic Activity M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.1% prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 08:00 (PL) Poland Oct CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior.

- 08:15 (CA) Canada Oct Annualized Housing Starts: No est v 279.2K prior.

- 08:20 (UK) BOE’s Mann.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Sept Int'l Securities Transactions (CAD): No est v 25.9B prior.

- 08:30 (US) Nov Empire Manufacturing: 7.6e v 10.7 prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Oct CPI M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior; CPI Core-Median Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior; CPI Core-Trim Y/Y: No est v 3.1% prior; Consumer Price Index: No est v 164.9 prior.

- 08:50 (FR) France to €5.9-7.5B in sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills (4 tranches).

- 09:00 (US) Fed’s Williams.

- 09:45 (EU) ECB’s Lane- 11:00 (EU) ECB’s Cipollone.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-week and 26-week bills.

- 13:00 (US) Fed’s Kashkari.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia RBA Minutes of Nov Policy Meeting.

- 21:00 (NZ) New Zealand Oct Non Resident Bond Holdings: No est v 59.6% prior.

- 21:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell HK$ 86B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 22:00 (TH) Thailand to sell THB 65B in 3-month bills.

- 22:00 (KR) South Korea Q3 Household Credit (KRW): No est v 1,952.8T prior.