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A quick glance at the oil chart tells you almost everything about what's going on across the global financial markets today.

US crude jumped 9% yesterday, breaking above its 200-day moving average—the level I was watching to distinguish between "this is just another blip" and "we're back to stress levels"—and is up another 2.3% at the time of recording this morning. Overall, oil has gained as much as 20% since its July 2 dip below the $70-per-barrel level. It is flirting with $80pb this morning. Spot prices are also rising faster than futures—a sign of growing concerns about near-term supply.

So, as I said, we're now back in the stress zone.

Middle East tensions are re-escalating: the US has attacked Iran, Iran has attacked neighbouring Gulf countries, the US blockade on Iranian ships has returned to the Strait of Hormuz, and this time Washington is also demanding a 20% fee on all cargoes passing through the Strait. That's bad news, as such a fee would push transit costs far beyond the roughly $2 million per ship that Iran had proposed charging. If you do the maths, a fully loaded oil tanker is worth around $150-170 million, meaning a 20% fee would amount to roughly $30-34 million per cargo. Bloomberg reports that such a measure would likely be illegal under international law. I would simply say that some people at the helm of the US appear to be losing their minds.