The AUD/USD pair rose to 0.6650 on Wednesday following the release of Australian economic data. Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) accelerated to 3.6% year-on-year in April, up from 3.5% in March. This slight increase in inflation could prompt questions about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) future interest rate decisions.
Despite the uptick in inflation, it is unlikely to impact the RBA’s interest rate plans significantly. According to official forecasts, the RBA does not anticipate cutting rates before May of next year. The minutes from the latest RBA meeting indicated that while the Board was considering the possibility of a rate hike in May, it ultimately decided to maintain a stable monetary policy.
The RBA has expressed concerns that recent statistical data might sustain inflation above the target level for an extended period. However, the central bank’s current stance is to wait and see, suggesting that no immediate changes to its policy are planned in response to the latest inflation figures.
Moreover, recent retail sales data showed a marginal improvement of 0.1% month-on-month in April from a decline of 0.4% in March. Despite this positive change, the figures fell short of the anticipated 0.3% increase, disappointing the economic outlook.
Technical analysis of AUD/USD
On the H4 chart, the AUD/USD has completed a correction and is forming a new wave of decline towards the level of 0.6620. The formation of a consolidation range is expected once this level is reached. A downward exit from this range could lead to a further decline to 0.6580, the local target. A corrective move to 0.6626 (testing from below) may follow, then a decline to 0.6547. The downward trend target is the first one. The bearish indicator technically supports this MACD scenario, with its signal line above zero but directed downwards.
On the H1 chart, the AUD/USD is forming a decline structure to 0.6627. After reaching this level, a potential rise to 0.6650 could occur. Further decline to 0.6620 is also possible, and a breakdown below this level could open the potential for a decline to 0.6608, with the possibility of extending the trend to 0.6580. This scenario is technically confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line currently above 50 but expected to drop to 20, indicating a possible continuation of the downward trend.
Summary
Despite mixed economic indicators, the rise of the Australian dollar highlights the complex dynamics affecting the currency. The RBA’s cautious stance appears to be a significant factor in stabilising the AUD, even as inflation slightly increases. Technical analyses suggest a bearish short-term outlook, with the possibility of corrective movements. It is crucial for investors and traders to closely monitor these levels and stay abreast of global economic developments so they can adjust their strategies accordingly.
Before you enter foreign exchange and stock markets, you have to remember that trading currencies and other investment products is trading in nature and always involves a considerable risk. As a result of various financial fluctuations, you may not only significantly increase your capital, but also lose it completely. Therefore, our clients have to assure RoboForex that they understand all the possible consequences of such risks, they know all the specifics, rules and regulations governing the use of investment products, including corporate events, resulting in the change of underlying assets. Client understands that there are special risks and features that affect prices, exchange rates and investment products.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD declines toward 1.1700 after US data
EUR/USD comes under modest selling pressure and declines toward 1.1700 on Thursday. The better-than-expected weekly Initial Jobless Claims data supports the USD and weighs on the pair, while markets await clarity on the EU-US trade relations.

Crypto market sees $500 million in liquidation as Bitcoin hit record highs amid dovish Fed minutes
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $111,999 on Wednesday amid dovish Fed minutes, fueling wider market optimism. CoinGlass data shows that over $500 million in leveraged positions were liquidated across crypto markets in the past 24 hours.

GBP/USD falls to 1.3550 region on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and falls toward 1.3550 following a short-lasting recovery attempt in the European morning. The cautious market stance and upbeat Jobless Claims data help the US Dollar (USD) hold its ground and doesn't allow the pair to gain traction as focus remains on US tariff news.

Gold holds above $3,300 but struggles to attract buyers
Gold holds above $3,300 on Thursday but struggles to build on Wednesday's gains. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stabilizes near 4.35% following the previous day's sharp decline, making it difficult for XAU/USD to push higher.

New US tariffs target Asia, but some countries stand to gain
President Trump’s new tariffs are higher than expected for most Asian economies. Moreover, most countries will face additional tariff rates on transshipments. The new announcements are silent on Singapore, India and the Philippines, which might stand to benefit from tariff concessions if negotiations progress favourably.

Best Brokers for EUR/USD Trading
SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you're a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.