AUDUSD we wrote yesterday, try shorts on any bounce to 7500/10

Daily Forecast - 25 May 2017

Dax June Contract

Dax key to direction should be first support at 12630/640. Holding here re-targets 12680/690 before 12705/710 & 4 month trend line resistance at 12780/790. Obviously we have further resistance at the all time high of 12840 so this 12780-12840 band should be a major challenge.

First support at 12640/630 below here re-targets 12565/555 before strong support again at 12515/505. This held perfectly last week; again longs need stops below 12470. A break lower is a sell signal targeting 12430/420 & perhaps as far as strong support at 12300/270 for a buying opportunity. A low for the week likely, but longs need stops below 12220.

 

Eurostoxx June Contract

EuroStoxx holding above 3570/73 allows a recovery towards 3595/3600 & perhaps as far as the high last week at 3626/29.

Holding below 3570/73 targets 3554/53 before more important support at 3545/40. Below here however re-targets 3518/15 & perhaps as far as 3505/00. We could reach as far as support at 3490/80 on the downside but look for a low for the week. A break below 3470 however is another sell signal targeting 3455/50 & perhaps as far as minor support at 3435/30.

 

Ftse June Contract

FTSE through 7502/06 for 7516 as I write then 7523/36 & perhaps as far as 7538/40 but gains are likely to be limited in such severely overbought conditions. With bulls in control we could eventually reach 7556/58.

Short term trend line support at 7505/01 then minor support at 7489/86 but below here a buying opportunity at 7469/65, with stops below 7455.

 

Bund June Contract

Bund holding the below first resistance at 161.00/160.95 targets minor support at 160.80/76 (we closed just below here) then 160.60/55 (also yesterday's low). A break lower today targets 160.44/41 with a very small gap here so a break lower risks a slide to 2 month trend line support at 160.34/32. Further losses target 160.17 (last week's low) before the May low at 160.00.

Above 161.05 allows a recovery to minor resistance at 161.20/25 before strong resistance at 161.50/54. We should struggle here again but above 161.60 re-targets resistance at 161.95/162.00....which held so perfectly last week. A break above 3 week highs at 162.15 is obviously positive again this week targeting quite strong resistance at 162.45/50 for profit taking on all longs.

 

AUDUSD Spot

AUDUSD we wrote yesterday, try shorts on any bounce to 7500/10 with stops above 7535, but this is tricky as we have 200 & 100 day moving average resistances just above at 7530/35 & 7555. We are overbought in an enormous 1 year sideways trend so gains are likely to be limited but I have no way of knowing if we can reach 7555 of it the high this week at 7517 will hold for a small double top. Just be aware that a break higher targets only minor short term Fibonacci resistance at 7580/90.

First target on the downside for shorts is 7475/70 then important 2 week trend line & short term Fibonacci support at 7450/45. Longs need stops below 7425 to target 7390/85 & 7370/65.

 

USDJPY Spot

USDJPY meets quite good support at 111.20/10 for profit taking on remaining shorts from 112.10. A break below this week's low at 110.87/84 however targets 110.75/70 & minor support at 110.55/50. A break below 110.20 then targets important 200 day moving average & 6 month trend line support at 109.99/90. This is the best chance of a low for the week as we head in to oversold conditions. We also have a gap to fill at 109.48 so longs need stops below 109.40.

Minor resistance at 111.80/90 & more important 4.5 month trend line resistance up to 112.10. This remains key to direction but shorts need stops above 112.55. A sustained break above 112.40 signals a more positive breakout to 112.55/60 & perhaps as far as 112.75/80. We should struggle here but further gains test the 500 day moving average at 113.10/15.

Failure to beat 111.80/90 risks a slide to.

 

EURUSD Spot

EURUSD now holding above 1.1210 risking a retest of 1.1260/63 highs. Tuesday's bearish engulfing candle in overbought conditions is still relevant & a double top today would be further negative confirmation. The 1.1299 November high on the day of the US election in November will need to be broken for further bullish confirmation.

First support at 1.1165/60 held perfectly yesterday, but a break below 1.1150 signals a move towards strong support at 1.1110/00. If you are looking to scalp, try longs for a potential quick bounce with a low for the day likely, perhaps to 1.1150/60, but place stops below 1.1070.

 

GBPUSD Spot

GBPUSD failure to beat what is now minor resistance at 1.2990/80 retests 1 month trend line support at 1.2950/40. HOWEVER longs are far more risky today...if you try use stops below 1.2910. A break lower signals a test of much better support at 1.2830/20. Try longs with stops below 1.2790.

Bulls still in control as we just held 1.2950/40 & now test minor resistance at 1.2990/80. Further gains could retest 1.3045/47 highs from last week. A break higher targets 1.3055/60 & 1.3085/90 before 11 month trend line resistance at 1.3110/20 & the main challenge for bulls this week.

 

S&P June Contract

Emini S&P never going down again it would appear as we continue higher to 2411. Further gains targets 2418/20, 2425/26, 2436/38, 2442/44. Madness.

First support at 2405/03 then 2396/95 could hold the downside as we seem to be unable to move much more than 0.5% most days unfortunately. If we continue lower look for an excellent buying opportunity at 2388/86 with at least a 10 point bounce like from here. Stop below 2380.