AUD/USD: Trading the Australian Retail Sales

Australian Retail Sales is considered the primary gauge of consumer spending. The indicator provides analysts and traders with an early look at consumer spending. A reading that is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

 Indicator Background

Consumer spending is one of the most important components of the economy, and strong numbers in this sector signify growth and a stronger economy.

In October, the indicator edged lower to 0.5%, beating the estimate of 0.3%. The forecast for the November report stands at 0.4%.

Sentiments and levels

The US economy enters 2017 in excellent shape, and monetary and fiscal divergence is bullish for the greenback ahead of the Trump inauguration. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.7630, 0.7513, 0.7427, 0.7311, 0.7223 and 0.7148.

5 Scenarios

1. Within expectations: 0.1% to 0.7%: In such a case, the Aussie is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.

2. Above expectations: 0.8% to 1.2%: An unexpected higher reading can send AUD/USD well above one resistance line.

3. Well above expectations: Above 1.2%: Such an outcome would propel the pair upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.

4. Below expectations: -0.4% to 0.0%: A negative or zero reading could push AUD/USD below one level of support.

5. Well below expectations: Below -0.4%: In this scenario, the Aussie could break a second support level.

Interested in AUDUSD technicals? Check out the key levels