Australian Retail Sales is considered the primary gauge of consumer spending. The indicator provides analysts and traders with an early look at consumer spending. A reading that is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.
Indicator Background
Consumer spending is one of the most important components of the economy, and strong numbers in this sector signify growth and a stronger economy.
In October, the indicator edged lower to 0.5%, beating the estimate of 0.3%. The forecast for the November report stands at 0.4%.
Sentiments and levels
The US economy enters 2017 in excellent shape, and monetary and fiscal divergence is bullish for the greenback ahead of the Trump inauguration. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 0.7630, 0.7513, 0.7427, 0.7311, 0.7223 and 0.7148.
5 Scenarios
-
Within expectations: 0.1% to 0.7%: In such a case, the Aussie is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
-
Above expectations: 0.8% to 1.2%: An unexpected higher reading can send AUD/USD well above one resistance line.
-
Well above expectations: Above 1.2%: Such an outcome would propel the pair upwards, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
-
Below expectations: -0.4% to 0.0%: A negative or zero reading could push AUD/USD below one level of support.
-
Well below expectations: Below -0.4%: In this scenario, the Aussie could break a second support level.
Interested in AUDUSD technicals? Check out the key levels
This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.
Opinions are the authors — not necessarily OANDA’s, its officers or directors. OANDA’s Terms of Use and Privacy Policy apply. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD clings to daily gains above 1.0650
EUR/USD gained traction and turned positive on the day above 1.0650. The improvement seen in risk mood following the earlier flight to safety weighs on the US Dollar ahead of the weekend and helps the pair push higher.
GBP/USD recovers toward 1.2450 after UK Retail Sales data
GBP/USD reversed its direction and advanced to the 1.2450 area after touching a fresh multi-month low below 1.2400 in the Asian session. The positive shift seen in risk mood on easing fears over a deepening Iran-Israel conflict supports the pair.
Gold holds steady at around $2,380 following earlier spike
Gold stabilized near $2,380 after spiking above $2,400 with the immediate reaction to reports of Israel striking Iran. Meanwhile, the pullback seen in the US Treasury bond yields helps XAU/USD hold its ground.
Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC post-halving rally could be partially priced in Premium
Bitcoin price shows no signs of directional bias while it holds above $60,000. The fourth BTC halving is partially priced in, according to Deutsche Bank’s research.
Week ahead – US GDP and BoJ decision on top of next week’s agenda
US GDP, core PCE and PMIs the next tests for the Dollar. Investors await BoJ for guidance about next rate hike. EU and UK PMIs, as well as Australian CPIs also on tap.