AUD/USD Forecast: Corrective advance supported by stocks

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

AUD/USD Current Price: 0.6842

The Australian trade surplus jumped to A$ 15,96 million in May, beating expectations.
Global stock markets closed in the green, helping AUD/USD to recover the 0.6800 mark.
AUD/USD is mildly bullish in the near term, could extend its gains towards 0.6900.

The AUD/USD pair recovered the 0.6800 threshold on Thursday, trading in the 0.6840 price zone at the end of the American session. The pair advanced during the Asian session, helped by mixed Australian data. The May Trade Balance posted a record surplus of A$ 15,96 million, much better than anticipated, although the AIG Performance of Services Index contracted to 48.8 in June from 49.2 in May.

Nevertheless, gains across stock markets helped lifted AUD/USD. Global indexes closed in the green, partially relieved by central bankers, as the latest headlines coming from that front hint at no innovation in monetary policy. Policymakers repeated their hawkish messages while pouring cold water on recession speculation. Nevertheless, macroeconomic figures keep pointing to a sharp economic slowdown.

Australia will not release relevant macroeconomic data on Friday, with the focus on US employment data to be out later in the day.

AUD/USD short-term technical outlook

The AUD/USD pair could extend its corrective advance, according to technical readings in the daily chart. However, it is far from turning bullish. In the mentioned time frame, technical indicators head firmly higher but still within negative levels. The 20 SMA has partially lost their bearish strength, but remains well above the current level, currently at 0.6910 and providing resistance.

The 4-hour chart shows that the pair has settled above a flat 20 SMA, while the longer ones maintain modest bearish slopes above the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have re-entered positive territory but lack directional strength. Gains are likely to be limited and temporal, depending mostly on stocks’ behaviour. Selling interest will likely resurge around the 0.6900/10 price zone.

Support levels 0.6800 0.6760 0.6725

Resistance levels: 0.6860 0.6905 0.6945

View Live Chart for the AUD/USD

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Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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