Asia wrap: The new oracle in town
Asian stock indexes perked up on Thursday, riding the wave of new economic data from China and Japan. In China, retail sales in July pleasantly surprised to the upside, though industrial production didn't quite hit the mark.
Over in Japan, Q2 GDP outpaced expectations with a robust 0.5% quarter-over-quarter climb, translating to a 3.1% annual surge. Of course, the Yen didn’t blink, with the Bank of Japan members still hiding under their desks and the once-hurricane tailwind from the carry trade unwinding, barely stirring a breeze in USDJPY's sails these days.
Yet, the soft landing whispers from the US continue to serenade global risk markets.
Enter the new market oracle: while the latest US CPI print flashes a green light for the Fed to initiate rate cuts, possibly in September, the real debate is whether it'll be a bold 50bp dive or a more cautious 25bp trim. The outcome hinges on the upcoming August payroll fireworks: Will it rebound with a robust 160-200k job gain, brushing off July's jitters, or will a modest sub-100k reading push the Fed towards a heftier cut?
Amidst this, the plot thickens with the Texan hurricane twist. Trying to untangle the storm's impact from the usual job market ebb and flow is like spotting a needle in a swirling haystack. It will require some sharp-eyed data dissection to determine how much of the employment dip was whipped up by Mother Nature’s fury.
Author
Stephen Innes
SPI Asset Management
With more than 25 years of experience, Stephen has a deep-seated knowledge of G10 and Asian currency markets as well as precious metal and oil markets.
