Asia FX Handover: Big 4 Bank Forecasts 3x RBA Cuts in 2019

It felt the calm after the storm following events from the European and US session, with minor range overall as markets digested weaker global data.
The exception for FX is AUD, which is the weakest major after Westpac Bank upped their dovish forecasts for 3x RBA cuts in 2019.
President Trump is reported to be contemplating punishments for currency manipulators (spoiler alert, he means China) whilst also saying issues with ‘dangerous’ Huawei could be resolved with a trade deal.
NZ PM Arden has signalled lower growth for New Zealand.
Japan’s key inflation gauge hit a 4-year high, although the milestone read was undermined as it was driven by a spike in tourism fees. All other reads hit their low expectations.
WTI made an almost feeble effort to lift itself from $60, following its worst session of the year. Japanese equities gapped lower, yet gaps were filled as they tried to track Chinese shares cautiously higher. US index futures have ticked slightly higher but, overall, look like sheepish moves compared with yesterday’s rout.

Matt Simpson, CFTe, MSTA CityIndex

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Matt Simpson, CFTe, MSTA

CityIndex

Matt Simpson is a certified technical analyst who combines charts and fundamentals to generate trading themes.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold holds above $5,000 as bears seem hesitant amid Fed rate cut bets

Gold edges lower at the start of a new week, though it defends the $5,000 psychological mark through the Asian session. The underlying bullish sentiment is seen acting as a headwind for the bullion. However, bets for more rate cuts by the Fed, bolstered by Friday's softer US CPI, keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and continue to support the non-yielding yellow metal as the focus now shifts to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.

Week ahead: Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

The US jobs report for January, which was delayed slightly, didn’t do the dovish Fed bets any favours, as expectations of a soft print did not materialize, confounding the raft of weak job indicators seen in the prior week.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.