In the category of "World Leaders That Live in La La Land" the nominees are: (I couldn't let this go.....)
Kim Jung Un - Of North Korea, Fidel Castro - Cuba (posthumous), Vlad Putin - Russia, Barack Obama - United States, Hugo Chavez - Venezuela (posthumous)
And the Golden Globe goes to.......Barack Obama - United States! What a performance last night in his final farewell address to the nation and the world......Outstanding! Look how much better off the country is 8 yrs later.
As he tells us - Job creation has NEVER been better (if you want a part time job) , wages have NEVER been stronger (if you make minimum wage) , the stock mkt has NEVER been higher (thanks to the FED), housing has recovered (thanks to the FED), unemployment has NEVER been lower (thanks to the fact that they don't count the people who have fallen off the radar or are seeking full-time work), race relations have NEVER been better - and all because of his leadership! 8 yrs ago he said "Yes we can" and last night he said "Yes we did!" Oh boy - Did he ever! But that was then, this is now.....
Today at 11 am - we will get to see President Elect Donald Trump give his "Hey look! It's me" speech.....Now while many of you may not tune in because it is not 'prime time' - we can be sure that the mkt will be listening to what he has to say....
OK...so yesterday - stocks finished mixed - while NASDAQ closed at another record high - ahead of the Obama Farewell address and today's remarks by Trump.....(Nasdaq has been helped by the renewed interest in the biotech/healthcare sectors). Investors and traders trying to square themselves ahead of both these events as well as the coming events set to go off on Friday....
Eco data on Friday (which by the way is Friday the 13th - not that I am superstitious at all) includes: PPI - exp of 0.3%. Ex food and energy of 0.1% m/m - PPI y/y is expected to be +1.6%, Ex food and energy of +1.8%, Retail Sales of +0.7%, Ex autos of +0.5% and Ex autos and gas of +0.4%, Business inventories are expected to be +0.6%. All of these reports will set the tone for 2017 and be the baseline for President Elect Trump to measure his success.....8 yrs out when we hear his Farewell address to the nation in January of 2025.....
Earnings are on the minds of everyone now....and yesterday we saw some angst show up in trading of IBM - as that stock took a hit - fell $2 on renewed concerns that the strong dollar will be a drag on earnings.....Ok - we talked about this...this is NOT IBM's first rodeo with a strong dollar, investors know this and the long term investor has already allocated for this possibility.
I mean do you think that Ginni Rometty (IBM CEO) is going to come out and say
- "Oh boy, that strong dollar really caught us by surprise!" Come On!!! (And btw - if analysts get caught off guard by the stronger dollar - then find a new analyst..)
Think about it......It is the trader types that get more uneasy as they are more concerned with what happens in the next 10 mins vs. the next ten years. So as we move closer to any announcement we will begin to see the whites of their eyes.....Look - if you are a long-term investor and you like IBM - then you love the fact that the earnings take a hit because of a strong dollar and NOT because there is something else fundamentally wrong with the stock.....If you like IBM at $165 and you think it is going to $265 over time - then love the fact that the trader types blow out of their trading positions forcing the stock temporarily lower which only provides an opportunity for you.
And so expect to hear more about the strong dollar blah, blah, blah......as if we haven't heard enough already.....we get it....multinationals will most likely take a hit due to the dollar - but if you like GE, JNJ, KO, BA, CAT etc....and the fundamental story has NOT changed then what are worried about?
The dollar as discussed in yesterday's note - has cooled a bit after the run it had post-election.....and it is just waiting to see how earnings start to shape up...if they are on target for 3+% growth and guidance is robust (as expected) then that will help justify another FED move (earlier vs. later) at some point down the line and the dollar will surely react (move higher) as rates rise and the economy improves....If earnings appear weaker or the guidance appears weaker then that will put pressure on the dollar and cause the FED to possibly pause for a bit to get more data as winter turns to spring.
Oil - took a beating yesterday...falling $2 as the reality of INCREASING supplies is running contrary to the OPEC plan -Oil has fallen more than 6% since Monday - but is trying hard to rally this morning ahead of the weekly gov't inventory stat....US producers ramping up production.....(we discussed this) but this did and will put pressure on the energy sector as oil tests the $50 mark again... If it holds right here - then energy will be fine....
US futures are flat this morning....No real eco data to speak of - Mortgage Applications were up 5.8%......but do not expect that to be a mkt mover at all.....- The analysis will be about what The Donald said and what that then means for the first 100 days of his presidency.
I expect to see the mkt remain in it's current range - until we get into the thick of earnings season which begins on Friday.....
Take Good Care
KP
Slow Roasted Sirloin
This is a great dish - not difficult at all - and in the end presents beautifully for an intimate dinner party.
Get yourself a nice sirloin roast - 5 / 6 lbs.....season with salt and let rest for 20 mins on the counter. While this is resting, slice fresh mushrooms, chop 2 lg carrots, 2 celery ribs, 1 large onion, select a nice bottle of red wine ( I use a pinot noir), a can of low sodium beef broth and a can of tomato paste.
After resting - season beef with pepper and sear it in a frying pan with Olive Oil making sure to brown on all sides even allowing a crust to form.
When complete - place in a V rack in a roasting pan and place in a preheated 275 degree oven uncovered. Allow to cook for 2 1/2 to 3 hrs or when ready according to the meat thermometer.
After putting the roast in the oven - return to the frying pan - add the chopped veggies to the oil and sauté until tender - 8 / 10 mins. Add tomato paste and mix.....add 1/2 bottle of the red wine and stir, then pour yourself a glass - bring to boil and let the alcohol burn off a bit...3 mins. Add the beef broth and simmer - stirring occasionally. Do not let it dry out...if necessary - you can always add a bit more broth. After about 10 mins....taste to make sure you like it. If so - puree 1/2 this mixture and return to the sauté pan. turn off heat. Set aside.
When beef is ready - take out of oven and let it rest for 10 mins - covered in foil. Reheat the sauce...thinly slice the roast and arrange on plate - top with sauce. This should be served with either mashed potatoes, or roasted potatoes, a green veggie - like peas (something different) and a large mixed green salad - dressed in a red wine/vinegar dressing.
Buon Appetito.
General Disclosures
Information and commentary provided by ButcherJoseph Asset Management, LLC (“BJAM”), are opinions and should not be construed as facts. The market commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a solicitation to invest or increase investments in BJAM products or the products of BJAM affiliates. The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon. There can be no guarantee that any of the described objectives can be achieved. BJAM does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Information provided from third parties was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but no reservation or warranty is made as to its accuracy or completeness.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will be profitable. The price of any investment may rise or fall due to changes in the broad markets or changes in a company’s financial condition and may do so unpredictably. BJAM does not make any representation that any strategy will or is likely to achieve returns similar to those shown in any performance results that may be illustrated in this presentation. There is no assurance that a portfolio will achieve its investment objective.
Definitions and Indices
The S&P 500 Index is a stock market index based on the market capitalization of 500 leading companies publicly traded in the U.S. stock market, as determined by Standard & Poor’s.
UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, INDEX RETURNS REFLECT THE REINVESTMENT OF INCOME DIVIDENDS AND CAPITAL GAINS, IF ANY, BUT DO NOT REFLECT FEES, BROKERAGE COMMISSIONS OR OTHER EXPENSES OF INVESTING. INVESTORS CAN NOT MAKE DIRECT INVESTMENTS INTO ANY INDEX.
BJAM is an investment advisor registered in North Carolina and Arizona. Such registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. BJAM’s advisory fee and risks are fully detailed in Part 2 of its Form ADV, available upon request.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.0800 after upbeat US data
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and trades slightly below 1.0800 in the American session on Thursday. The data from the US showed that the real GDP growth for the fourth quarter got revised higher to 3.4% from 3.2%, supporting the USD and weighing on the pair.
GBP/USD stays in daily range above 1.2600
GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth helps the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.
Gold clings to strong daily gains above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays above 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.