All eyes on the FOMC meeting

In focus today

In the US, the main event of the week will be the FOMC meeting tonight. Previously this week we revised our call now expecting a 25bp rate hike at the meeting. Given the current market pricing (90% probability of a hike), and the fact that we have long argued rate hikes are eventually on the horizon in any case, tightening now likely represents the path of least resistance. We do not think the decision is a completely done deal, and we believe there will be 2-3 dissenters in favour of a hold. We still expect the FOMC to publish its updated economic projections and 'dots', even if Warsh opts out from submitting his personal views again. In the afternoon US retail sales for August is released too.

In the UK, the August CPI inflation print will be released today. Headline inflation is expected to rise from 2.9% in July, driven by motor fuel and airfares. Food prices have followed a normal seasonal pattern over the summer, though higher energy prices pose an upside risk. Services inflation has been trending lower alongside wage growth. It stood at 3.4% in July and remains the key focus for the MPC, with the hawkish minority viewing it as too sticky to justify keeping rates on hold.

In Sweden, the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for August is published. The July outcome was strong: unemployment fell to 8.6% while labour force participation increased. Our forecast is that the labour market will continue to improve, but it is worth keeping in mind that the Labour Force Survey is volatile and that individual monthly outcomes should be interpreted with caution.

Economic and market news

What happened yesterday

In the euro area, the German ZEW index in September showed a markedly better assessment of the current situation, but expectations for future growth disappointed. The assessment of the current situation rose to -47.1 (cons: -52.1, prior: -61.1), which is the highest level in three and a half years. The rebound in German growth is especially due to the significant fiscal easing and a rise in manufacturing orders. However, expectations for future growth disappointed, as they remained at 34.7 (cons: 40.0, prior: 34.2). This likely reflects the recent tightening in financial conditions and higher energy costs. The impact of these factors will likely take some months to affect growth, given the lag lengths in German retail energy and rate pricing, which the September ZEW survey reflects well.

In the UK, payroll employment fell by 26,000 in August, compared with consensus expectations of a 5,000 decline, while revisions to June and July payrolls also pointed lower. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.9% in July, in line with expectations, and average weekly earnings rose by 3.9%, also matching consensus and marking the softest reading since the three months to February. Regular earnings growth averaged 6.3% in the public sector and 2.9% in the private sector, slightly above the 2.8% expected. Overall, this is another dovish data signal for the Bank of England, and the FX market appeared to read it that way, with GBP weaker.

Equities: Equities closed lower across regions yesterday as oil gained another 4%. Oil has now risen in ten of the past eleven sessions, advancing almost 30% over that period. Unsurprisingly, Energy was the only sector in positive territory.

The more revealing signal came from the rest of the market. Excluding Energy, this was not a conventional defensive rotation. Instead, the selling was concentrated in the consumer complex, with consumer discretionary leading the decline but consumer staples also under pressure. Investors increasingly view consumers as the main casualty of higher energy prices and are reducing exposure accordingly. Despite the broader equity market still being up more than 10% year to date, consumer discretionary is the worst performing sector and is down more than 5%. Importantly, neither consumer discretionary nor consumer staples has experienced the largest earnings downgrades. The underperformance therefore reflects investors demanding a higher risk premium in the consumer sectors rather than merely responding to weaker earnings estimates.

Oil is easing from its highs this morning, supporting Asian equities, while European and US futures are marginally higher.

FI and FX: Broad USD remained on a strong footing yesterday and EUR/USD declined modestly, as risk sentiment continued to sour. Safe-haven CHF also rose, while cyclicals NZD, SEK and AUD underperformed. USD/JPY has retraced some of its recent decline and traded up to 155 yesterday as markets await further clues from both the Fed tonight, and Bank of Japan on Friday. The EUR swap curve twist steepened yesterday, as pressure remains on the long end with global long-end yields continuing to set new decade highs. All focus will be on the FOMC meeting later this evening.