ADP Jobs number - heads up for Friday's Non-Farms

ADP came in at 263,000 – miles above the 180,000 expected

The ADP number isn’t a good predictor of the actual Non-Farm Payroll number. However, it can give a “heads-up” for a big surprise, up or down. So today’s reading suggests we should get a strong reading on Friday.

Despite a long run of strong jobs numbers there are some concerns that US economic growth isn’t as robust as it should be. Survey data such as Consumer Confidence, ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs may be robust, but “hard data” (with the exception of employment numbers) like Durable Goods, Retail Sales, Construction Spending, Vehicle Sales and Factory Orders have all disappointed recently. This is happening as the Fed proceeds to tighten monetary policy and even hints of starting to wind down its balance sheet later this year. Meanwhile Donald Trump’s promised tax cuts, infrastructure spending, and even regulatory roll-back still look like election promises which may be fulfilled sometime in the future rather than providing fiscal stimulus right now.