A comparison of CEE growth projections

On the radar

• In Slovakia industrial producer prices for the domestic market rose 3.4% y/y in August.
• Fitch lifted its 2026 Polish GDP growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.3%.
• Retail trade volume in Slovenia increased 5.7% y/y in August and 1.0% m/m.
• No specific relevant releases scheduled for today.

Economic developments

The OECD's latest Interim Economic Outlook, published in September, brought modest revisions to the global and euro area outlook, while warning that inflation risks remain elevated. As the update did not include revised forecasts for CEE economies, we compare our latest projections with the OECD's most recent country forecasts from June to assess CEE growth prospects. Compared with those projections, we are more optimistic on growth in five of the seven CEE countries shown, reflecting stronger than expected 1H26 activity and the incorporation of 2Q26 GDP data. The largest difference is in Slovenia, where we forecast 3.2% growth in 2026 versus 1.9% by the OECD, following average GDP growth of 4.0% y/y in 1H26. We also expect stronger growth in Poland (3.6% vs. 3.0%) and Czechia (2.2% vs. 1.9%), as resilient private consumption and EU-funded investment continue to support domestic demand despite higher energy prices. Romania is the main exception, where we remain more cautious and forecast a 0.7% contraction (OECD: -0.1%) due to fiscal consolidation and falling real wages. We are also slightly less optimistic than the OECD on Croatia. The OECD's upward revision of its 2026 euro area growth forecast to 1.0% from 0.8%, published in its latest September Interim Economic Outlook, is broadly consistent with our September CEE Macro Outlook view that the region has weathered external headwinds relatively well. Differences in outlook narrow in 2027, although renewed energy-price pressures remain the key downside risk.

Market movements

Markets continued to price a more hawkish policy outlook across CEE, with inflation and sovereign developments remaining in focus. In Czechia, CNB Vice-Governor Zamrazilová warned that strong public-sector wage growth could add to inflation pressures, although the market was supported by S&P's upgrade of the country's outlook to positive from stable. In Poland, RPP member Kotecki argued that rate hikes may be warranted if inflation remains elevated, while Fitch revised up its 2026 GDP growth forecast and expects only limited easing next year. The zloty nevertheless remained under pressure, trading close to 4.37. Therefore, regional bond yields edged higher, with Romania continuing to underperform ahead of the upcoming S&P review, while Hungary's higher financing needs point to increased institutional bond issuance.

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