- Senator Kamala Harris may have an outsized impact for a Vice President nominee.
- President Donald Trump's sensitivities may trigger responses that could backfire.
- California-based Harris could have an especially significant role in tipping Florida toward Democrats.
The first rule of Vice Presidential picks is "do no harm" to one's own party – but Senator Kamala Harris has the potential to inflict outsized damage on the other side's candidate – President Donald Trump.
A reelection campaign is first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent. The newly minted VP candidate has the ability to push White House occupant's buttons and also to appeal to swing voters.
Here are five reasons how Harris can hurt Trump's reelection:
1) Mysogionistic Trump
The president's first response to Harris' pick was that she is "nasty" and tweeting that "The “suburban housewife” will be voting for me".
Women with opinions and ambitions like the Senator from California – or his 2016 rival Hillary Clinton – receive a bad characterization while those who stay at home rather than pursue a career are described as good ones.
Trump is trailing among females and will need their support to win. While Democrats have been having an advantage among women for many years, the president widened that gap with his demeaning approach toward females. Examples include bragging about sexually assaulting women in that infamous Access Hollywood tape, say about Fox News journalist Megyn Kelly "blood coming out of her wherever." and many more.
Having Harris by Biden's side may bring more women to vote against the president – or refrain from voting for him.
2) Racist Trump
Harris's appointment is historic – she is the first Black and Asian woman to be on a presidential ticket. Her nomination was also seen as a nod to African Americans, potentially helping increase turnout.
However, the Senator was not so successful among blacks in her short-lived primary race. The African-American community preferred Biden – due to serving under Barrack Obama, the first black president, thanks to his higher electoral chance or other reasons.
Harris' skin color could increase black turnout via triggering racist comments from Trump. He already opened the door to suggest that the Senator is not eligible to run as her parents were born abroad – a theory which is wrong and resembles the "birtherism" movement that tried to delegitimize Obama.
The president called Omarosa Manigault Newman "that dog" and "crazed, crying lowlife" after firing her from a post at the White House. Manigault Newman, a black woman, was a former contestant in Trump's show.
Trump's racism is consistent, dating back to 1973 when he was sued alongside his father for discriminating against prospective Black tenants. Other examples include responding to a march of Nazis in Charlottesville and saying that were "good people" among them. He previously said that some Mexicans are good people as well, but that Mexico sends rapists.
Any additional racist comments by Trump could help turn out more voters against him.
3) Appealing to moderates
Harris is considered a moderate – as her state's Attorney General and San Francisco's District Attorney, she was considered tough on crime, prompting criticism within the left. That will make accusations that she and Biden are "captives of radicals" harder to stick.
The Trump campaign already failed in attacking Biden's mental health – a Fox News poll from late July showed the public sees the Democratic nominee as more sound than the president.
Moreover, the California Senator also adopted a calm approach to dealing with the growing strength of tech companies – a market-friendly approach that will make it easier for soft Republicans to back the ticket.
4) Prosecutor
Harris brought her legal background to the Senate, using it to "prosecute" witnesses. Trump lamented the approach to now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanagh. In her first speech alongside Biden, Harris laid down the case against Trump, focusing on his deadly mishandling of the coronavirus crisis.
She will likely continue publishing well-articulated critic of the president's failings, garnering support and as mentioned earlier, triggering angry responses.
Moreover, the Harris-Trump clashes will allow Biden to remain above the fray, seeming more presidential than his rival. The challenger already leads the incumbent on compassion in that same Fox News poll – unsurprisingly given Trump's self-centered approach to COVID-19. That would increase the gap.
3) Tipping Florida?
The Sunshine State – which awards 29 electoral college votes – has had its share of close races in recent years. The most memorable one was that it voted for George W. Bush by 537 votes in 2000, awarding him the presidency despite losing the popular vote.
Florida has voted for the winner in recent elections and may do so again, perhaps thanks to Harris. The "purple" or "toss-up" states consist of many people whose parents were born outside the US. They may identify with Harris and vote for her – or stay at home and refrain from voting for the Republican.
Many Cuban-Americans go with the GOP – an outlier among Hispanics – as it is seen as being tougher against the Cuban regime. It is no surprise that the White House announced the cancelation of flights to Havana days after Harris' nomination.
Nevertheless, the mix of the California Senator's background and the deadly impact of COVID-19 on Florida may tip the state toward the winners again – Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
Conclusion
While the race focuses on the incumbent, only later on the challenger and leaving a distant third for the rest, Senator Harris' nomination could result in own goals from Trump. Moreover, she has room to appeal to voters that may shift more people toward the Democrats.
Biden has a significant lead:
Financial markets seem to accept moderates Biden and Harris in the White House but would shiver if Dems win the Senate – where the race is much closer than for the presidency.
Harris' nomination has yet to move the dial for stocks, but that could happen if her interactions with Trump increase the chances that Democrats win a clean sweep – allowing leftist Senators Bernie Sanders and Elisabeth Warren to have their say in healthcare and banking respectively.
More 2020 Elections: Trump is losing his economic edge, for three robust reasons
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