WTI stabilises close to $110, set to end the week flat and at the middle of recent ranges

Oil prices are a little lower on Friday, though remain comfortably within recent ranges and aren’t really trading with much conviction. Front-month WTI futures were last trading near the $110 per barrel mark, down just under $2.0 on the day, though still trading nearly $5.0 higher versus Thursday’s lows around $105. WTI looks likely to close out the week nearly bang on flat, having failed to test late-March highs in the $116s in the first part of the week before coming under pressure amid a sharp deterioration in global equity market sentiment on Wednesday.

A lack of major new crude oil-relevant fundamental developments this week means it's not too surprising to see WTI at the middle of this week’s $105-115ish ranges. Firstly, there hasn’t been much to update on regarding the proposed EU ban on Russian oil imports. The proposal still hasn’t secured the unanimous agreement amongst EU member nations needed to go into force, with Hungary still holding out, though analysts expect an agreement could be reached at an EU council summit at the end of this month.

This lack of progress combined with this week’s downturn in global equities as investors fret about aggressive central bank (Fed) tightening amid sky-high inflation despite slowing global growth kept WTI from surpassing the mid-$110s. But further evidence of OPEC+ output struggles (as smaller nations continue to underproduce relative to their output target and Russian output drops), easing China lockdowns and the continued lack of any progress towards oil export sanction relief on Iran or Venezuela plus a weaker US dollar helped WTI find plenty of buyers as it dipped back into the mid-$100s.

Meanwhile, data this week showed that despite recent fuel (and general) price inflation, US consumer spending is holding up. April Retail Sales data out on Tuesday was better than expected, while weekly US inventory data out on Wednesday showed a further decline in crude oil stocks and US refiners running at full capacity. Moreover, data from the Federal Highway Administration on Friday showed that vehicle miles in the US continue to rise, indicative of there not being substantial demand destruction just yet.