- WTI has pulled back from session highs above $80.00 as US equities come under selling pressure at the open.
- But oil may continue to fair better than equities, which are suffering from Fed hawkishness, if the demand outlook remains strong.
Amid US equities coming under some selling pressure at the Tuesday equity open, front-month WTI futures have pulled back from earlier session highs to the north of the $80 per barrel level and are now trading back in the $79.00 area. That still leaves WTI prices up more than 50 cents on the day and the oil bulls will still be eyeing a test of last week’s highs in the $80.50 area. Indeed, oil strategists continue to view the spread of the Omicron variant as not likely to leave a meaningful dent in near-term oil demand.
Meanwhile, despite the recent hawkish shift in market expectations for Fed tightening that has weighed on US and global equities, with four hikes now seen in 2022 coupled with quantitative tightening, the outlook for global growth in 2022 remains strong. This is what matters most for demand rather than financial condition-focused crude oil markets. The implication might be that, in the coming weeks/months, as long as Fed tightening isn’t seen as a “policy mistake” (i.e. that slows the economy unnecessarily), oil may remain a relatively safe risk asset even if Fed tightening expectations continue to weigh on equities.
OPEC supply woes remain in the headline and could also be offering some support to the price action. Libya has faced further setbacks in its efforts to bring production back to 2021 peak output levels of roughly 1.3M barrel per day (BDP). The country’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) said on Tuesday that it would be suspending oil exports from its Es Sider terminal due to bad weather and lack of storage. As a result, it's Waha Oil Co. (which exports oil through the Es Sider terminal) would be reducing production by 50K BPD and this could rise to as much as as 105K BPD. Despite this, the NOC said that output was back to 896K BPD from the 729K BPD reported last week.
Ahead, private US oil inventory data is scheduled for release at 2130GMT ahead of Wednesday official EIA US inventory report which is seen showing a seventh consecutive week of draws, with a further 2M barrel drop in stocks expected.
Note: All information on this page is subject to change. The use of this website constitutes acceptance of our user agreement. Please read our privacy policy and legal disclaimer. Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. Risk Disclosure: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD holds above 0.6500 in thin trading
The Australian Dollar managed to recover ground against its American rival after AUD/USD fell to 0.6484. The upbeat tone of Wall Street underpinned the Aussie despite broad US Dollar strength and tepid Australian data.
EUR/USD comfortable below 1.0800 lower lows at sight
The EUR/USD pair lost ground on Thursday and settled near a fresh March low of 1.0774. Strong US data and hawkish Fed speakers comments lead the way ahead of the release of the US PCE Price Index on Friday.
Gold price finishes Thursday’s session set to reach new all-time highs
Gold price rallied during the North American session on Thursday and hit a new all-time high of $2,225 in the mid-North American session. Precious metal prices are trending higher even though US Treasury yields are advancing, underpinning the Greenback.
Bitcoin price extends retreat from $69K as old whales shift their holdings to new whales
Bitcoin price continues to move further away from the $69,000 threshold, gaining ground as BTC bulls hope for a retest of the $73,777 peak. This is because of the general assumption that clearing this blockade would set the tone for a reach higher, marking a new all-time high.
Bears have been standing before a steamroller so far this year
Despite a pushback on rate cuts from Christopher Waller, and what was supposed to be cautious trading sentiment ahead of critical US inflation data released later on Friday, the S&P 500 rose on Thursday, marking its best first-quarter performance in five years.