WTI Price Forecast: Slides back to mid-$89.00s as Mideast jitters limit losses

WTI attracts fresh sellers as Trump rules out attacks on Iran before midterm elections.
Middle East conflicts and Hormuz risks could limit deeper losses for the black liquid.
The technical setup warrants caution for bulls or positioning for any meaningful gains.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts some follow-through selling on Friday, extending the previous day's pullback from a one-week high, around the $92.40 region. The black liquid sticks to modest intraday losses through the first half of the European session and currently trades just above mid-$89.00s, down over 1.0% for the day.

The optimism led by President Donald Trump's comments, saying that the US would refrain from resuming military strikes on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections, exerted some pressure on crude oil prices. However, the geopolitical risk premium remains in play amid the US-Iran standoff over Tehran's nuclear program and escalating Middle East conflicts. Adding to this, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could act as a tailwind for the commodity.

From a technical perspective, crude oil prices hold below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the August-September upswing, keeping the near-term tone capped. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits marginally above zero with a contracting profile. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 49 stays neutral, suggesting fading bullish momentum.

In the meantime, any subsequent slide could find initial support near the 50.0% Fibo. retracement at $87.72, ahead of deeper structural floors at $84.35 (61.8% retracement) and $79.56. On the topside, a break above the $91.08 Fibonacci barrier would expose the clustered resistance formed by the 100-period SMA around $91.18, with a further move targeting the 23.6% retracement at $95.24 if buyers regain control.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI 4-hour chart

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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