WTI Price Forecast: Sits near $105.50; eyes four-week top as Trump's Iran deadline looms
- WTI regains positive traction as fading hopes for a US-Iran ceasefire keep supply concerns in play.
- Traders also remain worried about a new phase of US military action following Tuesday’s deadline.
- The technical setup also favors bullish traders and backs the case for a further appreciating move.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – catches fresh bids during the Asian session on Tuesday and climbs back closer to a nearly four-week high set the previous day. The commodity currently trades just below mid-$105.00s, up over 1.5% for the day, ahead of US President Donald Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In the meantime, Trump heightened a harsh rhetoric against Iran and threatened to target civilian infrastructure if the deadline of Tuesday, 8 PM Eastern Time (00:00 GMT Wednesday) passes without a deal. Iran, on the other hand, pushed back against pressure to reopen the strategic waterway and rejected a ceasefire proposal, instead insisting on a permanent end to the conflict. This raises the risk of a further escalation of conflict in the Middle East and acts as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is bullish as Crude Oil prices extend above the rising 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), confirming an established uptrend after last week’s rebound from the mid-$90s. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory with the line above its signal, while the histogram stays slightly expanded, suggesting steady upside momentum rather than a blow-off move. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 64 remains below overbought conditions, indicating buyers retain control with no immediate sign of exhaustion.
Meanwhile, immediate resistance is located at $105.70, the recent peak, and a clear move above would reinforce the current bullish structure, opening the way toward $107.00. On the downside, initial support emerges at $103.50, the latest pullback low, ahead of a stronger floor at $101.50, where recent consolidation aligns closer to the rising 100-period EMA near $95.10 on a broader horizon. A break below $103.50 would expose $101.50, and then the $99.50 area as deeper downside levels within the trend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI 4-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
