WTI Price Forecast: Retakes $99.00 as bulls eye further gains amid Middle East jitters
- WTI sticks to a positive bias for the second straight day amid geopolitical uncertainties.
- The bullish technical setup backs the case for an extension of the upward trajectory.
- Any meaningful corrective slides are more likely to be bought into and remain limited.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts fresh buyers following the previous day's two-way price swings and climbs back above the $99.00 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. The black liquid remains close to its highest level since May 21, touched last Friday, and seems poised to climb further amid intensifying supply concerns due to the Middle East crisis.
In the latest developments, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen carried out a large-scale missile and drone attack on a Saudi air base in Khamis Mushait on Monday. Furthermore, Iranian Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei rejected the prospect of immediate negotiations with the US, saying that Tehran will not return to talks until its conditions are met. This, in turn, dampens hopes for a diplomatic solution to end the war and keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play, validating the positive outlook for crude oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the recent breakout above the $91.00 horizontal barrier, which also represented the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July corrective fall, was seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Adding to this, momentum stays constructive, with the Relative Strength Index hovering just below overbought territory around 69 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remaining positive. This further points to persistent upside pressure while crude oil prices stay above the high-$90s area.
Meanwhile, the next notable resistance aligns with the prior cycle high near $107.23, which could cap the immediate bullish scope unless decisively broken. On the downside, initial support is now seen near $98.57 at the 78.6% retracement, followed by the 61.8% level around $91.78 and the 50% retracement near $87.01. Further pullbacks would encounter the 100-day SMA clustered around $85.39 before more substantial Fibonacci floors emerge at $82.24 and $76.33, which should provide additional layers of demand before the cycle low around $66.79.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI daily chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
