WTI Price Forecast: Retakes $95.00 amid supply concerns and bullish technical setup
- WTI attracts fresh buyers during the Asian session amid supply disruption worries.
- The broader technical setup favors bulls and backs the case for a further move up.
- A sustained move beyond the 61.8% Fibo. level is needed to reaffirm the positive bias.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil prices regain some positive traction during the Asian session on Tuesday and recover a part of the previous day's retracement slide from the vicinity of the $100.00 psychological mark. The commodity currently trades just above the $95.00 round figure, up nearly 2% for the day.
The Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint for about 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas trade - has been largely disrupted since the US-Israeli war on Iran. The effective closure of the critical waterway has been fueling concerns about supply shortages and is turning out to be a key factor acting as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices.
From a technical perspective, the near-term bias is mildly bullish as the commodity holds above the $94.22 area, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the $112.83-$75.61 fall. Moreover, Crude Oil prices also trade comfortably above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $88.33, which reinforces an underlying upward bias despite the recent pullback from the $98 handle.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has turned less negative, and the MACD line is edging above the signal line near the zero area, hinting at recovering upside momentum, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fluctuates around 50, consistent with a market attempting to rebuild directional pressure after consolidation.
Initial support emerges at $94.22, with a break there exposing a deeper retracement toward the $92.50–$92.25 congestion zone ahead of the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $89.83. Below that, the 200-period SMA near $88.33 acts as a more distant downside buffer.
On the topside, immediate resistance stands at $95.80–$96.00, where recent intraday highs cluster, followed by the 61.8% retracement at $98.61, which capped the latest advance. A clear hourly close above $98.61 would open the way toward the $104.87 Fibonacci barrier, while failure to overcome $96.00 would keep the recovery fragile and leave the focus back on $94.22 support.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI 1-hour chart
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
