WTI Price Forecast: Retains bullish bias above mid-$98.00s and 61.8% Fibo.

WTI opens with a bullish gap amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran.
The recent breakout through the 100-day SMA and the 61.8% Fibo. level favors bullish traders.
Any corrective pullback is likely to find decent support and be bought into near the -$95.50 area.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – kicks off the new week on a positive note, reversing a part of Friday's retracement slide from its highest level since May 21. The black liquid currently trades just above mid-$98.00s, up over 2% for the day, and seems poised to climb further amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the Middle East crisis.

In the latest developments, Iran-backed Houthi fighters in Yemen said that they used drones and missiles to attack a military base in southern Saudi Arabia. Adding to this, a planned regional meeting between Gulf states and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz has been postponed, fueling concerns about supply disruptions in the region and validating the near-term positive outlook for crude oil prices.

The near-term bias is bullish as WTI holds well above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $85.38 and has pushed through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $95.48. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in positive territory with the line still elevated, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 69, hinting at strong but increasingly stretched upside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 78.6% Fibo. retracement at $103.23, followed by the cycle high level near $113.11. Meanwhile, the reclaimed 61.8% retracement at $95.48 forms the first key support, ahead of a broader demand band around the 50% retracement at $90.04 and the 100-day SMA near $85.38, with deeper support levels aligning at $84.59, $77.86, and the structural low at $66.97.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI daily chart

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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