WTI Price Forecast: Recovers early losses and strives to return above 20-day EMA
- The Oil price bounces back and flattens around $89.60 during the European trade.
- Iran refuses to have another round of peace talks due to the US blockade.
- US President Trump extends the ceasefire with Iran for an indefinite period.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), future on NYMEX, claws back its early losses and flattens around $89.60 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The Oil price attracts bids amid uncertainty surrounding the future of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply, which remains seized by Iran.
Oil flows near the Hormuz remain suspended due to the military dominance of Iran, and are expected to remain frozen further at least until Tehran agrees to resume peace talks with the US.
Iran remains firm on its stance that it won’t sit down again with the US for another round of peace talks as long as the US continues its blockade of Iranian sea ports.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has announced an extension to the two-week ceasefire on late Tuesday, through a post on Truth Social, which was due to expire on April 22, and has ordered the military department to hold attacks against Iran until Washington receives a unified proposal from Tehran. However, there has been no official response from Tehran towards the ceasefire extension.
WTI technical analysis
WTI US Oil trades flat at around $89.60 as of writing. The near-term tone of the oil price seems neutral as it remains sticky to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at $90.45.
The Relative Strength Index (14) wobbles inside the 40.00-60.00 zone, demonstrating a sideways trend.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $90.45, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way toward the downward-sloping trend line near $100.84. Looking down, the two-day low of $85.17 is the immediate support; however, a breakdown below the same would expose the oil price towards the April 17 low at $78.88.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
