WTI Price Forecast: Prolonged energy supply concerns remain key tailwind
- The Oil price rises to near $82.10 as fears of a prolonged energy supply disruption remain intact.
- Both the US and Iran claim to control the Hormuz Strait.
- OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for 2026 to 580,000 bpd.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades 0.5% higher at around $82.10 during the European trading session on Thursday. The oil price reflects strength as fears of a prolonged energy supply disruption continue to act as a key tailwind for oil prices.
With the United States (US) and Iran both claiming to have control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for one-fifth of global energy supply, the traffic through the chokepoint remains low.
According to data from Kpler, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was recorded to just six vessels on August 10, down from a recent 10-day average of about 11. This remains a massive decline from pre-war levels of 130 to 140 ships daily, Reuters reports.
Meanwhile, OPEC has revised its global oil demand forecast for the current year to 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the prior estimate of 780,000 bpd.
WTI Technical Analysis
The WTI US Oil trades at $82.10, holding a constructive near‑term bias as it trades above the 20‑day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $80.07. The oil price has extended the recovery above the 20-day EMA, which started after completing the 61.8% retracement of the swing from the July 2 low at $67.09 to the July 23 high at $92.25.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.55 sits slightly above neutral, hinting at steady rather than aggressive bullish momentum while price approaches overhead Fibonacci levels.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $82.54, followed by the 23.6% retracement at $86.11, where further gains could start to face profit‑taking. On the downside, immediate support is defined by the 20‑day EMA at $80.07, with stronger structural demand clustered around the 50.0% retracement at $79.65; a break below this area would expose deeper Fibonacci supports at $76.75 and $72.64, while the $67.40 low remains a major bearish target only if the current bullish structure fails decisively.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
