WTI Price Forecast: Needs decisive break above $85 for fresh advance

The oil price jumps to near $84.80 amid fears of prolonged energy supply risks.
US President Trump confirms that no talks with Iran are going on.
The number of vessels navigating through the Hormuz remains very low.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trade 0.55% higher at around $84.80 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The oil price remains firm as fears of prolonged energy supply disruption remain intact amid the deadlock between the United States (US) and Iran regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost one-fifth of energy supply.

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump confirmed, through a post on Truth Social, that Washington is not having any talks with Iran regarding the Hormuz reopening, nor are any discussions scheduled.

“There are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran. The Naval Blockade remains in full force and effect. The Hormuz Strait is open and operating. All water mines have been removed or detonated,” US President Trump wrote.

According to data from Kpler, six commodity vessels crossed the strait on Tuesday, down from nine a day earlier and below the 10-day daily average of 11, Reuters reported. This remains a massive decline from pre-war levels of 130 to 140 ships daily.

WTI Technical Analysis

The WTI US Oil trades at $84.61, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $81.22.

Price action continues to advance away from this dynamic support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.95 stays in positive territory, hinting at sustained upside pressure rather than overbought conditions.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $84.61 area as a short-term pivot, followed by the 20-day EMA at $81.22, which reinforces the underlying bullish structure. Looking up, the oil price needs a decisive break above $85 to extend the rally towards $90.00, with the two-week high at $92.25 the next hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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