WTI Price Forecast: More downside is likely if Oil falls below $67
- The Oil price rises 1% to near $69.40, following Iran’s attack on commercial ships transiting through Hormuz.
- Oil prices are likely to remain subdued as long as the US-Iran ceasefire remains intact.
- The OPEC+ has agreed to increase the global Oil supply by 188K barrels per day.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, trades 1% higher to near $69.40 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The oil price gains after reports that Iran attacked at least two commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost one-fifth of global energy supply, renewing fears of supply disruptions.
According to an Axios report, Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting through the Hormuz. Two commercial ships were hit and suffered significant damage, but no casualties were reported, Bloomberg reported.
While the impact of the event is expected to be limited, as the United States (US) has not delivered any remark regarding the matter, suggesting that the ceasefire with Iran remains intact.
However, US President Donald Trump threatened to attack Iranian infrastructure on Monday if it doesn’t finalize a deal soon.
In response, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned, “Negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue. Honour your signature.”
Meanwhile, the announcement of a hike in the overall oil output by the OPEC+ has increased the global supply, a scenario that weighs on oil prices.
WTI technical analysis
Bias: WTI US Oil trades higher at around $69.29 at press time. However, the index maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot prices hold well below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $74.27.
Momentum: The separation between price and the EMA suggests sellers remain in control, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 31.79 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still dominant but approaching levels where selling pressure could begin to moderate.
Resistance: On the topside, the immediate resistance is $70.00, followed by the 20-day EMA near $74.27.
Support: The Oil price might enter a fresh downside leg if it breaks below the July 2 low at $67.09. A downside move below $67.09 would expose the oil price to the February 26 low at $63.58.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
