WTI Price Forecast: Hovers around mid-$68.00s amid oversold RSI; bearish potential intact

WTI struggles to attract buyers and languishes near its lowest level since late February.
The bearish technical setup backs the case for a further near-term depreciating move.
A break below 78.6% Fibo. is needed to reaffirm the negative bias amid oversold RSI.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the $69.25 area on Friday, its modest bounce from the lowest level since late February touched the previous day. The commodity currently trades just above mid-$68.00s, up around 0.30% for the day, though it remains on track to register losses for the fourth consecutive week.

From a technical perspective, Crude Oil prices maintain a bearish near-term tone below the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2025-March 2026 rally. That said, the Relative Strength Index (14) sits in oversold territory near 29 and keeps the risk of a short-lived corrective bounce, warranting caution before placing fresh bearish bets.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains negative, suggesting persistent downside pressure. However, a sustained break below the 78.6% Fibo. level, near $67.50 is needed to back the case for an extension of the bearish trend towards a deeper floor seen near the prior cycle low level of $55.12.

On the topside, any recovery attempt is likely to face immediate resistance at the 200-day SMA around $73.19, followed by the 61.8% retracement at $77.23. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 50.0% level at $84.05, with higher barriers aligned at the 38.2% retracement around $90.88 and the 23.6% level near $99.33.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

WTI daily chart

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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