WTI Price Analysis: On the verge of a breakdown near $81.50

The oil price is on the verge of delivering a breakdown ahead of the US Retail Sales data.
US consumer spending momentum expanded at a higher pace of 0.4% vs. the former pace of 0.2%.
A confident breakdown of the Rising Channel pattern will trigger a bearish reversal.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, skid below the $82.00 support and expose to further downside. The oil price faces significant selling pressure after printing a fresh eight-month high of around $84.85 as a moderate increase in the United States inflation would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep interest rates higher for a longer period.

The oil price could resume its upside journey as Saudi Arabia considered an oil support cut to achieve price stability in the oil market.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) struggles to maintain an auction around 103.00 ahead of the US Retail Sales data for July. As per the estimates, consumer spending momentum expanded at a higher pace of 0.4% vs. the former pace of 0.2%.

The oil price is on the verge of delivering a breakdown of the Rising Channel chart pattern formed on a two-hour scale. A confident breakdown of the aforementioned chart pattern will trigger a bearish reversal, which will strengthen bears. The 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $82.23 is consistently acting as a barricade for the oil bulls.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) slips into the range of 20.00-40.00, which indicates an activation of a bearish impulse.

A downside move below August 1 low at $80.40 would drag the oil price toward August 3 low at $78.50, followed by July 24 low at $76.38.

In an alternate scenario, a recovery move above April 14 high near $82.50 would drive the asset toward April 10 high at $84.32. Breach of the latter would expose the oil price to a fresh nine-month high near $86.00.

WTI two-hour chart

WTI US OIL

Overview
Today last price	80.87
Today Daily Change	-1.07
Today Daily Change %	-1.31
Today daily open	81.94

Trends
Daily SMA20	80.13
Daily SMA50	74.92
Daily SMA100	74.88
Daily SMA200	76.26

Levels
Previous Daily High	82.6
Previous Daily Low	81.27
Previous Weekly High	84.32
Previous Weekly Low	79.66
Previous Monthly High	81.78
Previous Monthly Low	69.77
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	81.78
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	82.09
Daily Pivot Point S1	81.28
Daily Pivot Point S2	80.61
Daily Pivot Point S3	79.95
Daily Pivot Point R1	82.61
Daily Pivot Point R2	83.27
Daily Pivot Point R3	83.94

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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