WTI Oil falls for second day as US-Iran deal hopes erode Hormuz risk premium

WTI trades around $82.90 on Friday, down 2.54% on the day at the time of writing.
Crude Oil prices fall sharply after reports suggesting a US-Iran deal could be signed as early as this weekend in Geneva.
The prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening is reducing the geopolitical risk premium embedded in Oil prices.

Ghiles Guezout FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) extends its decline for a second consecutive day on Friday, trading around $82.90 at the time of writing as investors unwind defensive positions following fresh signs of easing tensions in the Middle East.

According to a Bloomberg report, officials from the United States (US), Iran and the Group of Seven (G7) believe an agreement aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz could be signed as early as this weekend in Geneva. Several sources indicated that a memorandum of understanding is likely to be adopted initially before a final agreement is reached.

The development follows comments from US President Donald Trump, who stated that a peace agreement with Iran could be finalized within the coming days. According to reports from Iranian media, Tehran is also expected to support the proposed text after Washington accepted several conditions put forward by the Islamic Republic.

The prospect of reopening the strategic shipping route is weighing on Crude Oil prices by reducing concerns about prolonged disruptions to global energy supplies. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit point for Crude Oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports from the Middle East to international markets.

Despite the optimism, some market participants remain cautious. A full normalization of energy flows could take time, as shipping lanes may need to be secured, infrastructure restored and production facilities affected by recent regional tensions brought back online.

Maritime tracking data nevertheless show that several LNG tankers have already departed the area heading toward Asia, suggesting that operators are beginning to anticipate an improvement in navigation conditions.

This week's sharp decline therefore reflects a rapid unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium that had supported Oil prices in recent weeks. Investors are now awaiting official confirmation of an agreement between the United States and Iran, which could further strengthen expectations for a normalization of global energy flows.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Ghiles Guezout

FXStreet

Ghiles Guezout is a Market Analyst with a strong background in stock market investments, trading, and cryptocurrencies. He combines fundamental and technical analysis skills to identify market opportunities.

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