WTI holds gains as OPEC+ raises Oil demand forecast, trims supply outlook
- WTI rose after OPEC+ increased its global oil demand forecast for next year while cutting its supply growth estimate.
- Oil prices eased ahead of the US-Russia meeting set for Friday.
- US API crude inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week, defying expectations for a 0.8 million-barrel draw.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price edges higher after registering more than 1% losses in the previous session, trading around $62.50 per barrel during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Crude Oil prices gain ground as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) raised their global Oil demand forecast for next year. Moreover, the group lowered its growth estimate for supply from the United States (US) and other non-OPEC+ producers, signaling a tighter market ahead.
However, the prices of crude Oil struggled ahead of the upcoming US-Russia meeting scheduled on Friday. US President Donald Trump and Russian President Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15, with an aim to finding a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. Any US-Russian deal could lead to lifting US sanctions on Russia, which may ease supply concerns. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has rejected any territorial concessions.
American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed US crude inventories rose 1.5 million barrels last week, against the expected decline of 0.8 million barrels and the previous 4.2 million barrels decline. The unexpected US crude stocks suggested the summer demand peak is nearing its end.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects crude output to hit a record 13.41 million bpd in 2025 before easing in 2026 as lower prices slow activity. OPEC maintained its 2025 demand outlook but raised its 2026 growth forecast by 100,000 bpd to 1.38 million bpd, anticipating output gains from other regions as US production declines. Separately, the US Department of Energy increased its estimate for this year’s global oil surplus to 1.7 million bpd.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Akhtar Faruqui
FXStreet
Akhtar Faruqui is a Forex Analyst based in New Delhi, India. With a keen eye for market trends and a passion for dissecting complex financial dynamics, he is dedicated to delivering accurate and insightful Forex news and analysis.
