WTI fluctuates below $100 as stalled US-Iran talks keep Hormuz supply fears alive

WTI trades with minor losses below the $100 mark as investors monitor stalled US-Iran negotiations and developments around the Strait of Hormuz.
OPEC flags tighter Oil supplies after OPEC+ output fell by 1.74 million bpd in April amid Middle East disruptions.
US crude inventories posted a larger-than-expected draw, while rising US inflation highlighted the impact of higher energy prices.

Vishal Chaturvedi FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil fluctuates with minor losses on Wednesday, though prices remain supported by fears that disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz may persist longer than expected as US-Iran negotiations remain at an impasse. At the time of writing, WTI is trading around $97.80 per barrel, down nearly 0.85% on the day.

The subdued price action reflects cautious sentiment as traders await further developments in the US-Iran peace talks, particularly over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Although tensions in the waterway remain elevated, the absence of major new developments is keeping WTI capped below the $100 mark for now.

OPEC’s latest Monthly Oil Market Report pointed to tighter Oil supplies due to supply disruptions in the Middle East. The organization said OPEC+ crude output averaged 33.19 million barrels per day (bpd) in April 2026, down 1.74 million bpd from March, as the Iran war prompted several Middle Eastern producers to cut output.

On the demand side, OPEC said global Oil demand is expected to grow by 1.2 million bpd in 2026, while 2027 demand growth was revised higher to 1.5 million bpd from the previous estimate of 1.3 million bpd.

The ongoing energy shock continues to fuel price pressures globally, with the latest US data showing the Consumer Price Index (CPI) accelerating to 3.8% YoY in April from 3.3% in March, marking the highest reading since May 2023. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 6% YoY from 4.3% previously, above market expectations of 4.9%.

Meanwhile, the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revealed US crude oil inventories fell by 4.306 million barrels in the week ending May 8, well above market expectations for a 2.1 million-barrel draw and following a 2.314 million-barrel decline in the previous week.

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Vishal Chaturvedi

FXStreet

I am a macro-focused research analyst with over four years of experience covering forex and commodities market. I enjoy breaking down complex economic trends and turning them into clear, actionable insights that help traders stay ahead of the curve.

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