Why quantum risk won’t kill Bitcoin despite Google’s warning?

The quantum threat had for a long time been regarded as distant or a hypothetical risk until Google’s Quantum AI whitepaper, released earlier this week, revealed that resources required to break Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC)—the bedrock of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH)– are 20x lower than previously estimated.

While the industry once expected quantum computers would need 10 million physical qubits, Google’s researchers now say a machine with just 500,000 could crack private keys in less than nine minutes.

Bitcoin transaction hijacking in minutes

The whitepaper warned that it is not the resources required to crack private keys that should worry the industry the most, but the speed at which the attack can be completed. Google’s optimized circuits could crack a cryptographic signature in 9 minutes, creating a narrow window for “real-time transaction hijacking.”

An attacker using the optimized circuits could, in real time, spot a transaction in the mempool, crash the private key and broadcast a fraudulent transaction before the original is confirmed.

Quantum computing threat could impact approximately 32% of the total supply, roughly 6.9 million BTC, which currently sit in legacy wallets, whose public keys are already visible to the network.

QCP researchers state that “the risk is also more narrowly defined than headlines suggest. It does not sit in mining or the network itself, but in transaction signing, particularly for older wallet formats where public keys are already exposed.”

Quantum computing signals a transition, not a trigger

Advances in quantum computing, such as Google’s optimized circuits, highlight the need for post-quantum security and upgrade solutions, not immediate panic. Besides, from a technological standpoint, no device has the capacity to generate the power required to break the current ECC standard.

Current computers operate at a fraction of the approximately 500,000 physical qubits, “leaving us orders of magnitude, roughly 1,000x, below the threshold required for a practical attack,” the QCP researchers added.

Still, the threat would affect the global banking system and encrypted communication infrastructure, not just Bitcoin and other digital assets.

On the other hand, stakeholders in both the crypto and traditional financial sectors are actively investing resources in developing solutions and upgrading technology amid evolving global standards.

While quantum computing is a threat to legacy Bitcoin wallets, it remains a long-term challenge unlikely to have a direct impact on the market in the short term. It is an issue that requires consistent monitoring and strategic preparation.

Bitcoin is trading above $68,000 support on Wednesday, while its upside remains capped below $69,000. As reported, the crypto king shows potential to extend its recovery above the $70,000 threshold, with a medium-term target of $76,000, the March peak.