The week ahead in Europe: Light agenda, UK jobs focal point - Nomura

Ivan Delgado Independent Analyst

Both the UK and Europe see a light economic agenda for the week ahead, with the UK labour market report and Euro area industrial production the main focus, notes the Economics Team at Nomura.

Key Quotes

UK BRC retail sales (Tuesday): The BRC retail sales report is one of a number of monthly surveys and anecdotal evidence about conditions on the High Street. So far this year, annual nominal like-for-like sales growth has averaged just over 0.5% y-o-y, versus a total of just below 1.5%. We expect retail sales growth to remain lacklustre in the coming months as the sterling-induced rise in inflation bites.

UK labour market report (Wednesday): This is arguably the most important piece of economic news ahead of the BoE’s 3 August MPC meeting. The focus will be firmly on the average wage numbers, where annual rates of growth have been weak. That will remain the case this month given that past monthly declines remain within the annual comparison. What is far more important, therefore, is to monitor the monthly growth rate of private sector ex-bonus (regular) pay, which was 0.2% and 0.4% m-o-m in the past two reports respectively. Another decent number would support our view of the first rate rise in a decade at the August policy meeting.

Euro area industrial production (Wednesday): We expect euro area industrial production to increase 0.3% m-o-m in May following a 0.5% m-o-m increase in April. An outcome in line with our expectations would take the April/May average level of IP 0.7% above the average for Q1, indicating a positive industrial sector contribution to Q2 GDP.

UK RICS housing market report (Thursday): The numbers to watch in this report are the prices balance (currently 18% and the lowest since last August) and the sales-tostocks ratio (presently 38.5) which is well correlated with lenders’ measures of house price inflation.

BoE Credit Conditions Survey (Thursday): The BoE produces measures of credit availability and demand for the household sector (both secured and unsecured) as well as for corporate lending. Unsecured household lending availability deteriorated last quarter while that of secured expanded; corporate lending availability has been broadly flat over recent quarters.

Author

Ivan Delgado

Independent Analyst

Established in the Asian continent since 2009, Ivan studied a degree in Business at the University Pompeu Fabra (Barcelona), while also earning a postgraduate degree in Business Administration.

GBP/USD drops to multi-month troughs near 1.3140

GBP/USD adds to Tuesday’s pullback and recedes to the lowest level since November 2025 near 1.3140. A firmer Greenback and continued political turmoil in the UK are keeping Cable under persistent pressure, with little sign of a meaningful recovery.

EUR/USD bounces off YTD lows around 1.1320

EUR/USD extends its decline on Wednesday, falling to fresh yearly lows near 1.1320. The pair remains on the defensive as the US Dollar continues to draw support from hawkish Fed expectations and uncertainty over the outcome of US-Iran peace negotiations.

Gold trims losses, back above $4,000

Gold retreats further and breaches below the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce for the first time since November 2025 on Wednesday. Higher-for-longer Fed expectations and a broadly firmer US Dollar continue to weigh on the precious metal, while uncertainty surrounding a potential US-Iran peace agreement has done little to revive demand for the safe haven space.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP trade under pressure as September Fed rate-hike odds increase

Bitcoin is trading between $62,000 and $63,000 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by headwinds stemming from macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

5.90% to 5.45%: Why the Pound ignored the bond market’s relief rally

Keir Starmer resigned on Monday, and the Pound barely moved. That near-silence is the tell. Sterling's real driver these past four months has not been the prime minister, nor the left-leaning frontrunner lining up to replace him, but the long end of the gilt curve, which answers to a force no British politician controls.

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.