USD/ZAR: Rand could be running into a lot of trouble over the next month – ING

For a highly volatile FX pair, USD/ZAR has been exceptionally quiet. Economists at ING analyze the pair’s outlook ahead of the South African annual budget.

Rand in focus on pre-election budget

The challenge for South Africa's Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will be seeking out pre-election giveaways while continuing to show that South Africa's debt-to-GDP trajectory will be stabilising at around 78% in 2025/26. That will be a challenging task given weak growth. And perhaps the biggest focus for FX markets will be whether the government decides to tap into the South African Reserve Bank's contingency fund for government spending plans. That would be a very bad look and probably trigger a strong upside break-out in USD/ZAR.

A USD/ZAR close above its 20-day Bollinger Band at 19.14 today (Bollinger bands are used as a tool in technical analysis to pinpoint breakouts from low volatility regimes) suggests the Rand could be running into a lot of trouble over the next month.