USD/TRY Technical Analysis: Bulls are back in town, TRY puts gain value

Lira (TRY) took a beating on Thursday on reports that the Turkish central bank's deputy governor and Monetary Policy Committee member Erkan Kilimci is set to resign.
Experts downplay contagion fears, but EM currencies are feeling the heat. Indian Rupee (INR) hit record low yesterday and Argentina's peso dropped 10 percent, forcing the central bank to raise rates to 60 percent.
The USD/TRY looks set re-test the record highs above $7.00, having ended last week's consolidation with a bull breakout.
The drop in the lira has revived interest in the TRY puts (bearish bets). The USD/TRY one-month 25 delta risk reversals hit a two-week high of 9.90 yesterday.

Omkar Godbole FXStreet Contributor

Hourly chart

Spot Rate: 6.75

Daily High: 6.7839

Daily Low: 6.6231

Trend: Bullish

Resistance

R1: 6.7847 (78.6% Fib R of the recent pullback from record highs)

R2: 6.9536 (Aug. 14 high)

R3: 7.0831 (record highs)

Support

S1: 6.6231 (session low)

S2: 6.4422 (5-day moving average)

S3: 6.2490 (10-day moving average)

Author

Omkar Godbole

FXStreet Contributor

Omkar Godbole, editor and analyst, joined FXStreet after four years as a research analyst at several Indian brokerage companies.

AUD/USD eyes 100-SMA hurdle near 0.7035 as hawkish RBA counters firmer USD

AUD/USD regains positive traction on Tuesday and climbs to 0.7030 during the Asian session, reversing the previous day's corrective slide from a one-month high as hawkish RBA rate expectations continue to support the Aussie. Spot prices, however, remain below the 100-day SMA pivotal resistance amid a firmer US Dollar as traders brace for Australia’s September CPI report on Wednesday ahead of the Fed rate decision.

USD/JPY sticks to modest gains above 157.50 as traders await Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts buyers for the third straight day, recovering further from a one-month low ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision and the BoJ policy update on Friday. Meanwhile, expectations that the BoJ may hold off on aggressive rate hikes weigh on the Japanese Yen, and the US Dollar advances to a nearly two-week high, supporting the currency pair.

Gold advances modestly past $4,000

Gold looks to consolidate Tuesday’s humble gains just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce. Indeed, the precious metal adds to Monday’s bounce despite the better tone in the US Dollar, mixed US Treasury yields and steady caution ahead of the FOMC event on Wednesday.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP on edge as sell-side pressure intensifies

Cryptocurrency prices are broadly correcting on Tuesday, led by Bitcoin (BTC) edging lower below the pivotal $80,000 level. Ethereum (ETH) mirrors Bitcoin’s neutral-to-bearish outlook, while Ripple (XRP) hovers around $1.30.

Experts agree: Fed policy outlook and geopolitical tensions keep US Dollar bid

The US Dollar Index rallies 0.6% in three days and hits fresh two-week highs above 102.00. Investors return to the US Dollar as markets brace for a hawkish hold by the Fed on Wednesday. Waning hopes of any immediate US-Iran peace deal have provided additional support to the safe-haven USD.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.