USD/JPY Price Forecast: Trades above 153.50 ahead of US inflation; bearish bias remains
- USD/JPY consolidates near a seven-month low as traders await US inflation figures.
- A more hawkish BoJ repricing continues to underpin the JPY, capping spot prices.
- The technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance is to the downside.
The USD/JPY pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the first half of the European session on Thursday, consolidating its recent heavy losses to a nearly seven-month low, touched earlier this week. Spot prices currently trade just above mid-153.00s, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders now look to US inflation figures for a fresh impetus.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) report will be published later this Thursday, while the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due on Friday. The data will be looked at for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path, which, in turn, will influence the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/JPY pair. In the meantime, a more hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) repricing might continue to act as a tailwind for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and cap the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, the recent breakdown below the 155.30-155.20 support was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders against the backdrop of a failure near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The said area coincided with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April 2025-July 2026 rally and should cap any meaningful recovery attempt. The USD/JPY pair is now lodged beneath the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 154.87 and maintains a bearish near-term bias.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 26 signals oversold conditions, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory. Momentum indicators together hint that downside pressure persists even as the risk of a corrective bounce increases. On the topside, the initial hurdle is aligned at the 38.2% retracement at 154.87, followed by the 23.6% level at 158.39 and the 100-day SMA near 159.73, with the recent cycle high at 164.08 acting as a broader cap.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 50.0% retracement at 152.03; a sustained break there would expose the 61.8% level at 149.18 and then deeper Fibonacci floors at 145.13 and 139.97.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -0.44% | -0.51% | -3.20% | -0.29% | -0.61% | 0.08% | -0.34% | |
| EUR | 0.44% | -0.10% | -2.79% | 0.12% | -0.20% | 0.55% | 0.09% | |
| GBP | 0.51% | 0.10% | -2.69% | 0.22% | -0.10% | 0.63% | 0.17% | |
| JPY | 3.20% | 2.79% | 2.69% | 3.05% | 2.64% | 3.25% | 2.97% | |
| CAD | 0.29% | -0.12% | -0.22% | -3.05% | -0.39% | 0.06% | -0.04% | |
| AUD | 0.61% | 0.20% | 0.10% | -2.64% | 0.39% | 0.69% | 0.25% | |
| NZD | -0.08% | -0.55% | -0.63% | -3.25% | -0.06% | -0.69% | -0.41% | |
| CHF | 0.34% | -0.09% | -0.17% | -2.97% | 0.04% | -0.25% | 0.41% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
