USD/JPY Price Analysis: Breaks to new YTD highs on USD strength, rising wedge in focus

USD/JPY surges to a YTD high of 141.91, though failure to surpass 142.00 could trigger a sell-off.
The rising wedge pattern sparks uncertainty as USD/JPY nears key resistance.
Japanese FX intervention may influence future USD/JPY direction.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

USD/JPY soared more than 1% on Friday due to safe-haven flows and a jump in US Treasury bond yields. On its way north, the USD/JPY reached a new year-to-date (YTD) high of 141.91 after bouncing off daily lows of 139.85. At the time of writing, the USD/JPY is exchanging hands at 141.85.

USD/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook

USD/JPY finished the week with a higher tone but facing solid resistance, as the daily chart shows. The major has been trading within a rising wedge, and the USD/JPY closed nearby the top-trendline of the pattern at around 141.86. Failure to crack resistance and push prices above 142.00 would expose the USD/JPY to selling pressure. In addition, Japanese authorities’ language interventions in the FX markets could weigh on the pair and open the door for a correction.

With the USD/JPY’s path of least resistance being upwards, the pair’s first ceiling level would be 142.00. Break above will expose the November 22 high at 142.24, ahead of reaching 143.00. Conversely, the USD/JPY could dive to May’s 29 high turned support at 140.92 before dropping to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 139.40.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily chart

USD/JPY

Overview
Today last price	141.86
Today Daily Change	1.51
Today Daily Change %	1.08
Today daily open	140.35

Trends
Daily SMA20	139.58
Daily SMA50	136.71
Daily SMA100	134.89
Daily SMA200	137.24

Levels
Previous Daily High	141.5
Previous Daily Low	139.94
Previous Weekly High	140.45
Previous Weekly Low	138.76
Previous Monthly High	140.93
Previous Monthly Low	133.5
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	140.91
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	140.54
Daily Pivot Point S1	139.7
Daily Pivot Point S2	139.04
Daily Pivot Point S3	138.14
Daily Pivot Point R1	141.26
Daily Pivot Point R2	142.16
Daily Pivot Point R3	142.82

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

GBP/USD picks up pace around 1.3550

GBP/USD leaves behind part of the recent three-day retracement and hovers around the 1.3550 region on Monday. The Greenback’s fresh downward trend helps Cable recoup part of the recent ground lost while attention remains on the potential Fed rate path.

EUR/USD challenges 1.1600 amid a decent recovery

EUR/USD is partially trimming Friday’s severe pulback and is managing to flirt with the key 1.1600 barrier at the beginning of the week. The pair’s rebound follows a modest selling pressure on the US Dollar as investors assess the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September.

Gold slips back to $4,400, multi-day lows

Gold adds to Friday’s maked decline, briefly falling to the sub-$4,400 region per troy ounce on Monday. The yellow metal’s pullback comes despite the softer stance in the US Dollar and steady uncertainty in the Middle East, although rising yields keep bulls at bay for now.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP broadly consolidate amid renewed US-Iran strikes

Bitcoin remains resilient above $78,000 as investors anticipate a renewed push toward $80,000. Ethereum continues to demonstrate a constructive technical setup, holding above $2,400. Ripple is exhibiting early signs of recovery near $1.37.

Oil rallies on fresh persian gulf strikes

Energy prices are trading firmer this morning after the US carried out targeted strikes against Iran, drawing retaliatory strikes and reinforcing concerns about a prolonged stalemate in the Persian Gulf. Oil prices started the week stronger following the first military strikes between the US and Iran in a month. ICE Brent briefly moved back above US$90/bbl in early morning Asia trading.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.