USD/INR snaps three-day losing streak as oil prices recover

The Indian Rupee corrects after a three-day winning spree against the US Dollar.
A sharp recovery in oil prices due to renewed US-Iran tensions weighs on the Indian Rupee.
Investors await the US NFP data for fresh cues on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The Indian Rupee (INR) fails to extend its three-day winning streak against the US Dollar (USD) and corrects sharply on Friday. The USD/INR pair bounces back to near 94.60 from the two-week low of 94.03 posted on Thursday.

The Indian currency faces backlash from a sharp recovery in oil prices, following renewed fears over the sustainability of the temporary ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran after the exchange of attacks near the Strait of Hormuz.

US-Iran uncertainty boosts oil price

At the time of writing, the WTI Oil price is down 1.6% to near $93, but holds its Thursday’s recovery move from $87.50, which came after Iran accused the US of violating ceasefire terms. Tehran condemned Washington for targeting an Iranian oil tanker and another ship entering the Hormuz. “The aggressive, terrorist, and pirate US military has violated the ceasefire,” a military spokesperson said, The Guardian reported.

In response, US President Donald Trump stated that the attack was a retaliatory measure from Washington’s navy destroyers and that the ceasefire is still intact. “It's just a love tap," Trump told ABC News when asked about the strikes, adding, “The ceasefire is going. It's in effect."

A sharp recovery in oil prices has renewed concerns for currencies from economies, such as India, which rely heavily on oil imports to meet their energy needs.

FIIs keep paring their stake in Indian stock market

There seems to be no relief for Indian stock markets from selling pressure by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) despite a broader risk rally. FIIs are dumping their stake in Indian equity markets as higher oil prices have raised concerns over India Inc.’s earnings projections.

So far in March, FIIs have remained net sellers in three of four trading days and have pared their stake worth Rs. 6,961.75 crore.

Investors await US NFP data

The impact of a sharp recovery in the US Dollar, which came in the North American session on Thursday, has also offered support to USD/INR. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.10. The DXY recovered due to the revival of concerns over the longevity of the US-Iran ceasefire.

Going forward, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, which will be released at 12:30 GMT. Investors will closely monitor the US NFP data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 74% chance that the Fed will hold interest rates at their current levels by the year-end.

Technical Analysis: USD/INR recovers from 20-day EMA

USD/INR trades higher at around 94.50 at the press time. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 94.2031. The pair is consolidating near recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought conditions, suggesting upside pressure remains but with moderated momentum.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 20-day EMA near 94.20, where a break would expose a deeper correction towards 93.00. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit its all-time high of 95.53 posted on May 5.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.

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