- USD/INR holds ground amid rising trade tensions between the US and China.
- India HSBC Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to a 14-month low of 57.7, from the previous 59.2 reading.
- Traders await Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls, which is expected a slight slowdown in job creation for January.
USD/INR continues its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 87.10 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The risk-sensitive Indian Rupee (INR) remains under pressure due to increased risk aversion following rising trade tensions between the US and China.
On the economic front, the seasonally adjusted India HSBC Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped from 59.2 in December to a 14-month low of 57.7. Despite the decline, the reading remains above the long-term average, signaling continued economic expansion. Meanwhile, the Services PMI registered at 56.5 in January, reflecting strong growth, though it slipped from 59.3 in December to its lowest level since November 2022.
In response to the new 10% US tariff that took effect on Tuesday, China imposed a 15% tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, along with an additional 10% tariff on crude oil, farm equipment, and certain automobiles.
Despite the escalating trade dispute between the United States and China, traders remain hopeful for a potential resolution, similar to the agreements reached with Mexico and Canada. US President Donald Trump stated on Monday that he expects to speak with China soon but warned, “If we can't reach a deal with China, the tariffs will be very, very substantial.” However, no further developments have been reported.
Meanwhile, investors anticipate a 25-basis-point rate cut in the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upcoming monetary policy meeting on Friday, amid slowing economic growth. Market optimism has been further buoyed by expectations following the FY2026 Budget.
Looking ahead, traders await Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to influence the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy direction. Consensus estimates suggest a slight slowdown in job creation for January 2025.
Economic Indicator
HSBC Composite PMI
The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and HSBC Bank, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in India This d by weighting together comparable manufacturing and services indices using official manufacturing and services annual value added. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Indian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Indian Rupee (INR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that the activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for INR.
Read more.Last release: Wed Feb 05, 2025 05:00
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 57.7
Consensus: 57.9
Previous: 57.9
Source: S&P Global
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD drops below 1.0450 as USD gathers strength
EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.0450 on Wednesday. The cautious market stance helps the US Dollar (USD) stay resilient against its rivals and weighs on the pair as markets wait for the Federal Reserve to publish the minutes of the January policy meeting.
Gold climbs to new all-time high near $2,950
Gold retreats slightly from the all-time high it touched at $2,947 but manages to stay above $2,930 on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield clings to modest gains above 4.55%, limiting XAU/USD's upside.
GBP/USD retreats below 1.2600 despite strong UK inflation data
GBP/USD struggles to hold its ground and trades in the red below 1.2600 on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, the data from the UK showed that the annual CPI inflation climbed to 3% in January from 2.5% in December. Market focus shifts to FOMC Minutes.
Fed Minutes to offer clues on slower rate cuts outlook in 2025
The Minutes of the Fed’s January 28-29 policy meeting will be published on Wednesday. Details surrounding the discussions on the decision to keep policy settings unchanged will be scrutinized by investors.
Money market outlook 2025: Trends and dynamics in the Eurozone, US, and UK
We delve into the world of money market funds. Distinct dynamics are at play in the US, eurozone, and UK. In the US, repo rates are more attractive, and bills are expected to appreciate. It's also worth noting that the Fed might cut rates more than anticipated, similar to the UK. In the eurozone, unsecured rates remain elevated.
The Best Brokers of the Year
SPONSORED Explore top-quality choices worldwide and locally. Compare key features like spreads, leverage, and platforms. Find the right broker for your needs, whether trading CFDs, Forex pairs like EUR/USD, or commodities like Gold.