USD Index regains some upside traction and approaches 102.00

The index picks up some pace and trades close to 102.00.
US yields remain firm in multi-week levels so far on Wednesday.
Weekly Mortgage Applications next on tap in the docket.

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a bundle of its main competitors, manages to reverse Tuesday’s weakness and advances to the proximity of the 102.00 region on Wednesday.

USD Index looks to risk trends

The index extends the range bound theme this week near the 102.00 region on the back of alternating risk appetite trends.

In the meantime, US yields keep navigating the upper end of the curve and remain propped up by firmer conviction of a 25 bps rate hike by the Fed at the May event. On this, CME Group’s FedWatch Tool sees the probability of such a scenario at around 85%.

Data wise in the US calendar, usual MBA Mortgage Applications are due in the first turn seconded by the EIA’s weekly report on US crude oil inventories and the release of the Fed’s Beige Book will close the session.

What to look for around USD

The absence of strong catalysts leaves the price action around the dollar – and the rest of the FX space – somewhat muted so far this week.

In the meantime, the marked retracement in the buck since March has been underpinned by the pick-up in the perception that the Federal Reserve could make a pause in its current tightening cycle just after the May meeting.

In favour of a pivot in the Fed’s normalization process, however, still emerges the persevering disinflation, nascent weakness in some key fundamentals and somewhat persistent concerns surrounding the banking sector.

Key events in the US this week: MBA Mortgage Applications, Fed’s Beige Book (Wednesday) – Initial Claims, Philly Fed Index, CB Leading Index, Existing Home Sales (Thursday) - Flash Manufacturing/Services PMIs (Friday).

Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent debate over a soft/hard landing of the US economy. Terminal Interest rate near the peak vs. speculation of rate cuts in 2024. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict.

USD Index relevant levels

Now, the index is gaining 0.27% at 101.99 and faces the immediate resistance at 102.80 (weekly high April 10) followed by 103.05 (monthly high April 3) and then 103.33 (55-day SMA). On the other hand, a breach of 100.78 (2023 low April 14) would open the door to 100.00 (psychological level) and finally 99.81 (weekly low April 21 2022).

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD gains traction near 0.7100 as the post-Fed USD rally pauses

AUD/USD finds fresh buyers and retakes 0.7100 in the Asian session on Thursday as the US Dollar pauses its hawkish Fed-inspired rally to its highest level since late July. However, RBA rate-hike bets and hopes for US-Iran diplomatic efforts lift risk sentiment and support the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar and the major.

USD/JPY reverses a dip below 156.00 as focus shifts to BoJ

USD/JPY is reversing a brief dip below 156.00 in the Asian session on Thursday, looking to snap a three-day winning streak to a nearly two-week top set the previous day. The US Dollar pauses following the post-Fed rally to seven-week highs, while a more hawkish repricing of the BoJ's policy normalization path supports the Japanese Yen. This keeps the pair's upside limited, with the focus now shifting to the BoJ policy decision due on Friday.

Gold bounces but not out of the woods yet

Gold is facing fresh sellers above $4,300 early Thursday, stalling its recovery from six-week lows of $4,235 reached soon after hawkish US Federal Reserve monetary policy announcements.

Bitcoin, crypto market see muted activity following FOMC rate hike

Bitcoin traded above $76,000 on Wednesday as the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. The unanimous 12-0 decision marked the Fed’s first rate hike since July 2023.

The Fed rate hike: What happens now?

The dust has settled on tonight’s Fed meeting and the market reaction is clear: the Fed’s signal that there could be a series of rate hikes has spooked financial markets. Bonds sold off at the short end of the Treasury curve and US stocks also fell, led by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which slipped more than 1% on Wednesday night.

How Japan became the World's Banker and why that era may be ending

Japan's ultra-low interest rates helped finance trillions of dollars in global investments for more than a decade, making the Japanese Yen one of the world’s cheapest sources of funding. With the Bank of Japan expected to tighten policy again this week, that advantage may be entering a new phase. While most major economies raised interest rates, Japan remained the world's outlier.