USD Index Price Analysis: A test of the May top near 104.80 is still likely

DXY reverses the negative price action seen at the beginning of the week.
Extra recovery could see the May high around 104.80 revisited.

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

DXY manages to regain some composure following Monday’s retracement and revisits the 104.20 region on Tuesday

Considering the current price action, another visit to the May peak of 104.79 (May 31) should remain on the table in the relatively near term. From here, the index could target the minor hurdle at the round level of 105.00 ahead of the crucial 200-day SMA, today at 105.53.

Looking at the broader picture, while below the 200-day SMA, the outlook for the index is expected to remain negative.

DXY daily chart

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

AUD/USD sits near a one-month top, above 0.7000 amid fresh USD selling

AUD/USD holds above 0.7000 through the Asian session, trading near a one-month high touched earlier this Monday amid renewed US Dollar selling. US bond yields decline further amid a modest pullback in crude oil prices, capping the USD recovery from a three-week low. Moreover, bets for a November RBA rate hike support the Aussie, though upside seems capped ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting, starting Tuesday.

USD/JPY struggles below 157.00 on weak USD; holds above one-month low ahead of Fed, BoJ meetings

USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers during the Asian session on Monday, stalling its recovery from the lowest level since September 18, touched Friday as a further decline in US bond yields weighs on the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen benefits from a more hawkish BoJ, further weighing on the currency pair. The downside, however, seems limited as traders keenly await Fed and BoJ policy meetings later this week.

Gold gains at start of Fed’s policy week

Gold finds bids below $4,000 in the Asian trade on Monday. The precious metal starts the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy week on positive note, but is broadly vulnerable, being closer to its three-month low of $3,975.

Bitcoin slides below $80,000, Ethereum and XRP bears in control

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) bears remain in control, extending losses on Monday after three straight weeks of declines. BTC slips below $80,000, while ETH and XRP follow BTC’s lead and trade lower at $2,315 and $1.30, respectively. The price action of these top three cryptocurrencies suggests weakening momentum indicators, raising the risk of a deeper correction.

CFTC Report: WTI rally runs ahead of positioning

The week in one sentence: WTI prices surged while speculative longs were cut in the week to October 20, creating the clearest price/positioning divergence. Sterling and the Canadian Dollar led the constructive currency shift, while Yen longs also rebuilt. Speculators turned less constructive on the WTI, reducing their net exposure to around 89.3K contracts.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.