USD/CNH Price Forecast: More downside likely below 6.7500

USD/CNH trades marginally lower to near 6.7750 as the US Dollar edges down.
China’s CPI remains steady at 1.2% YoY in May, misses 1.3% estimates.
Investors await the US inflation data for May.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/CNH pair trades slightly lower to near 6.7750 during the early European trading session on Wednesday. The pair faces selling pressure due to continued outperformance by the Chinese Yuan (CNY), being a trade surplus economy.

On Tuesday, China’s Trade Balance data for May also came in stronger than projected. Trade Balance arrived at $105.43 Billion, higher than the $92.1 Billion estimate and the previous reading of $84.82 Billion. Imports grew strongly by 27.4%, while they were anticipated to rise moderately by 25% vs. the prior release of 25.3%. While Exports rose 19.4% against expectations of 15% and the previous release of 14.1%.

Meanwhile, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May has remained steady at an annualized pace of 1.2%, while it was expected to grow at a faster pace of 1.3%.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% lower to near 99.87 ahead of the United States (US) CPI data for May, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US headline inflation is expected to come in higher at 4.2% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.8% in April.

USD/CNH technical analysis

USD/CNH trades lower at around 6.7763, extending the downside bias as spot holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 6.7867. The pair trading below this short-term average suggests sellers retain control, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 42 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering bearish momentum rather than an oversold condition.

On the topside, immediate resistance is now aligned with the 20-day EMA at 6.7867, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery. On the downside, the pair could slide further towards 6.7500 if it falls below the June 2 low at 6.7580.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures changes in the price level of consumer goods and services purchased by residents. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7200 after hot Chinese CPI data

AUD/USD is extending its consolidative price action above 0.7200 during the Asian session on Wednesday, uninspired by hot Chinese CPI and PPI data. Meanwhile, rising RBA rate-hike bets act as a tailwind for the Aussie amid Yen-inspired US Dollar weakness. Traders await the release of US inflation figures later in the week for fresh impetus.

USD/JPY stays weak near 153.50 amid aggressive BoJ hike bets

USD/JPY attracts fresh sellers in the Asian session on Wednesday as the strong Reuters Tankan business survey adds to the case for continued BoJ policy normalisation and boosts the Japanese Yen. This, along with a broadly weaker US Dollar, keeps the pair close to a nearly seven-month low set on Tuesday.

Gold rebounds from $4,350; will it last?

Gold is rebounding from a one-week low near $4,350 in the Asian session on Wednesday. The US Dollar, however, struggles to lure buyers amid a rallying Yen, supporting the commodity as traders await the key US inflation data for a fresh impetus. However, the rebound could be short-lived amid expectations of a Fed rate hike this month.

Bitcoin takes a breather, Ethereum and XRP maintain bullish footing

Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) are trading with a broadly constructive tone on Wednesday despite BTC's mild pullback over the past two days. The Crypto King holds above $78,000; ETH and XRP remain strong above key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), keeping their upside prospects intact.

Gold and stocks: What eight midterm elections did

I went back through every midterm election since 1994 and asked one question of each: when did the stock market make its low for the year, before the vote or after it? In seven of the eight cycles, the low came before the election. In six of the eight, it came between mid-June and mid-October, which is to say in the exact window that the "they won't let it fall" argument says is protected.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.