USD/CHF Price Analysis: Double top in play but sellers failure at 0.9520, could spark a test of 0.9600

USD/CHF bounces off near-daily lows and stays above the 50% Fibonacci retracement in the H1 chart.
Disappointing US economic data sparks a counter-cyclical move with the US dollar rising instead of falling.
The USD/CHF daily chart formed a double top that is in play, but USD/CHF sellers’ failures to breach 0.9520, might open the door for a rally towards 0.9600.

Christian Borjon Valencia FXStreet

The USD/CHF is trying to stage a recovery after falling for six straight days, though it failed to break below the June 24 daily low of around 0.9561 and remains trapped within that day’s price action amidst the lack of a fresh impulse above/below the 0.9520-9630 range. At 0.9563, the USD/CHF advances barely by 0.07% in the North American session.

US equities are beginning to tumble as market sentiment shifted sour. During the Asian session, positive news from China that cut quarantine for travelers was overshadowed by a dismal read in US consumer confidence, triggering a counter-cyclical move in the greenback, with the US Dollar Index advancing sharply near last Friday’s high around 104.377, up by 0.42%.

USD/CHF traders should notice that negative US data from the growth perspective can sometimes boost the greenback, as is happening today.

USD/CHF Daily chart

A double top in the USD/CHF daily chart is still in play. However, since last Friday, CHF buyers could not achieve a fresh swing low, below the 0.9520-0.9630 range, keeping the major trapped. In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39.72 begins to show some signs of aiming slightly up, but unless it breaks the 50-midline, the bias remains negative, and the USD/CHF might probe the 100-day moving average (DMA) at 0.9508 in the near term.

USD/CHF 1-Hour chart

The USD/CHF is seesawing around the daily pivot near 0.9573, with the 50, 100, and 200-simple moving averages (SMAs) above the exchange rate. Nevertheless, the pullback from daily highs at around 0.9586 might be short-lived, as the price jumped from around the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9560 after the London fix.

If the USD/CHF breaks above the 50-SMA at 0.9568, a re-test of the daily highs is on the cards. That said, the major next resistance would be the daily pivot at 0.9573, followed by the confluence of the 100-SMA, and the daily high near 0.9586-88, followed by the R1 daily pivot at 0.9600.

USD/CHF Key Technical Levels

USD/CHF

Overview
Today last price	0.9565
Today Daily Change	-0.0002
Today Daily Change %	-0.02
Today daily open	0.9564

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.9717
Daily SMA50	0.9733
Daily SMA100	0.9509
Daily SMA200	0.9363

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.962
Previous Daily Low	0.9543
Previous Weekly High	0.9713
Previous Weekly Low	0.9522
Previous Monthly High	1.0064
Previous Monthly Low	0.9545
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.9572
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.9591
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.9531
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.9498
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.9454
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.9608
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.9653
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.9686

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

FXStreet

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

AUD/USD picks up bids above 0.7100 after RBA-speak

AUD/USD picks up bids above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Tuesday, following hawkish comments from RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter and Governor Michele Bullock. However, escalating tensions in the Middle East and the Fed's hawkish outlook remain supportive of the bullish US Dollar undertone, which could limit the pair. The crucial Trump-Xi summit is later this week and remains in focus.

USD/JPY holds small gains near 157.50 as JPY intervention risks loom

USD/JPY posts modest gains while trading near 157.50 in the Asian session on Tuesday as intervention fears help limit losses for the Japanese Yen. However, the BoJ's dovish rate hike to a 31-year high keeps JPY bulls on the back foot. Meanwhile, the US Dollar retains a bullish undertone amid the Fed's hawkish outlook and escalating Middle East tensions, providing tailwinds for the pair.

Gold drops to three-day low, eyes $4,300 as hawkish Fed and Iran risks underpin USD

Gold turns lower for the second consecutive day following a modest intraday uptick, dropping to the $4,315 region, or a three-day low heading into the European session on Tuesday. The US Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook is seen as a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

Bitcoin pauses rally as profit-taking reaches yearly high

Bitcoin takes a breather, facing a pullback, trading below $85,500 on Tuesday after surging 6.7% the previous day. Strong institutional demand supports the bullish price action, with spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds recording nearly $1 billion in inflows on Monday and Strategy adding 950 BTC to its treasury.

Energy and risk markets remain in the driver’s seat

US stock markets rallied up 2.26% (Nasdaq) yesterday with AI/tech names leading the advance. The Nasdaq even tested the all-time high reached early June. The likes of the S&P 500 and EuroStoxx50 recovered up to 1.5%. Positive risk vibes and lower energy prices supported consolidation on bond markets following the past month’s heavy losses. European yield curves bull steepened.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.