|

USD/CAD: The risk of a spike is high – MUFG

The Canadian Dollar advanced in September which was notable given the broad US Dollar strength. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze Loonie’s outlook.

CAD resilience but downside risks persist before recovery takes hold

If US 10-year yields continue to drift higher the risk of an equity market correction will increase – if a correction unfolds, the risk of a spike in USD/CAD is high.

If the Fed hikes before year-end, the BoC could be in a position to limit the scale of increase in USD/CAD.

USD/CAD – Q4 2023 1.3600 Q1 2024 1.3400 Q2 2024 1.3300 Q3 2024 1.3200

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD clings to daily gains near 1.3350

GBP/USD holds just in positive territory around 1.3350 on Friday as the Greenback keeps a vacillating price action. With Fed rate hike expectations easing and US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, Cable remains on track to post solid weekly gains.

EUR/USD remains sidelined around 1.1440

EUR/USD holds on to its recent gains and consolidates around 1.1440 at the end of the week as the US Dollar lacks clear direction. In the meantime, trading conditions remain subdued, with volatility constrained by the closure of US markets for the Independence Day holiday.

Gold eases from two-week top as Hormuz risks support USD; remains near $4,200

Gold struggles to capitalize on its strength beyond $4,200 and retreats slightly from a two-week high touched during the Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar edges lower amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties stemming from tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, acting as a headwind for the bullion. However, receding Fed-hike bets might hold back USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and help limit the downside for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Week ahead: ISM services PMI and Fed Minutes to shake Fed hike bets

Dollar drops on NFP, but rate hike still expected by year-end. ISM services PMI and Fed minutes are the greenback’s next catalysts. RBNZ expected to raise rates, focus will be on forward guidance. ECB minutes, China CPI and Canada’s jobs report also on the agenda.

The Iran war failed to trigger a recession. Can the US economy keep defying expectations?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.