USD/CAD Price Forecast: Snaps four-day losing streak after attracting bids near 20-day EMA

USD/CAD recovers to near 1.3833 as the US Dollar gains ahead of US-Iran talks.
The US Dollar gains amid uncertainty over the US-Iran talks outcome.
Investors await the US CPI and the Canadian employment data for March.

Sagar Dua FXStreet

The USD/CAD pair rebounds to near 1.3833 from the two-week low of 1.3805 on Friday after snapping a four-day losing streak. The Loonie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran over terms in the 10-point peace proposal in Pakistan over the weekend.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% higher to near 98.95.

Earlier this week, Iran delivered a 10-point proposal to the US in consideration of a permanent ceasefire after agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, along with a two-week truce.

On the domestic front, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The inflation data would influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

In Canada, investors will focus on the labor market data, which will be released at 12:30 GMT. The data is expected to show that the economy created 15K new jobs after firing 83.9K workers in February. The Unemployment Rate is estimated to have increased to 6.8% from the previous reading of 6.7%.

USD/CAD technical analysis

USD/CAD trades higher at around 1.3830 during the press time. The near-term bias turns neutral, while the overall outlook remains bullish, as the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) flattens at around 1.3824 after rising for almost a month.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.6 is slightly above the neutral 50 mark, hinting that upward momentum is constructive but not overstretched after easing back from prior overbought readings.

On the downside, immediate support is the two-week low around 1.3800, and a decisive break back under this level would weaken the current constructive tone and expose deeper retracements toward the March 3 high of 1.3752. On the upside, key resistance levels are the April 2 low of 1.3870 and the March 31 high at 1.3967.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

Economic Indicator

Net Change in Employment

The Net Change in Employment released by Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of people in employment in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and indicates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

Canada’s labor market statistics tend to have a significant impact on the Canadian dollar, with the Employment Change figure carrying most of the weight. There is a significant correlation between the amount of people working and consumption, which impacts inflation and the Bank of Canada’s rate decisions, in turn moving the C$. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be CAD bullish, with currency markets usually reacting steadily and consistently in response to the publication.

Author

Sagar Dua

FXStreet

Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.

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